India Morning Report: Market forgets Hero hit in Reliance comebacks

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Hero is a forgotten brand today haemorrhaeging 5% market share from August 2012 to 36% in September even as Bajaj Auto maintains its key following of the brand and generates interest in new export markets. While the idle October till now sa markets reacting with aa dropin consumer Discretionary and non discretionary performance on the bourses in almost a synchronous reaction, the consumer brands including unlisted Sony, Panasonic, LG and Samsung with new lasting promotions and discount melas to save the festive season as consumers have not said they do not want to spend.

Financial markets in the meantime were roused appropriately by Axis Bank’s good enough showing though as promised Axis booked another INR 5 B in provisions on top of 2.5B in the year ago quarter, maintaining its 20% growth in Profits and a NII jump of only 16% to INR 23.2  B Both are nearly 10-20% lower than that of HDFC Bank and the bank is expected to lose higher NPAs than the industry in the coming few quarters. Non Interest income is stuck at INR16 B for the quarter. It seems credit growth has plateaued at the bank

Image representing Sony as depicted in CrunchBase
Image via CrunchBase

concurrent to losing restructuring battles and exponentially rising provisions. But as of now ‘like Citi’ this was expected for the bank.

The highlight of the day and probably all week was the jump in refining revenue for Reliance at a new $9.5 GRM for the company. Its other two businesses hasd petchemh holding to its share of revenues of nearly INR10000 Crores or INR100B, overall topline slowing to INR 90.3B down 6% sequentially instead of the usual larger drops due to the continuing reduction in E&P revenues as E&P slows down at KG D6. RIL revenues are up 15% over prior year and the stock has finally got a new range perhaps still redefining ruling Sensex levels after any correction as it moves up smartly from 821


RIL Logo
RIL Logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)




Reliance BIG gets to GECs

After BIG Prime, Spark and Love launches with CBS, Reliance Broadcast moves on ito its Hindi GEC Channel Big magic and launches a Punjabi GEC today. March 2012 revenues will see radio revenues at 75% but the contribution will drop to 50% by FY 2013 CBS is invested in regional India plans and a INR 3 Bln revenue seems to be a good target but likely will be scaled down as DTH , the growing segment is still dominated by Tata Sky which carrys Star GECs preferentially.

EEnadu was jumped by Reliance earlier i n 2009 and is now going to be controlled by the TV 18 group

Reliance broadcast will likely achieve a good portion of its FY2013 INR 3 bln revenue projections on its radio franchise strengths and revenues from CBS Prime

The On again off again real deal! – TV18 buys Eenadu

Resource centre in Dhirubhai Ambani Institute ...
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In a true Antilla style pronouncement  in the tradition of all things shadow banking, TV18 has actually agreed to pick up the Reliance EEnadu stake to save the Ambani brother from future losses in the business. The vile secret is that TV18 will issue two concurrent rights offers to finance the $660 mln purchase of Eenadu’s Reliance/JM stakes while the rights offers of $1.05 bln would not address promoter Raghav Bahl’s stake (rather Network18 cross holdings in TV18) bringing it to a round $660 mln for the purchase. Once investors have been satisfied, Reliance will pick up the unsubscribed rights to make TV18 full up on the cash required for the Eenadu stake purchase the TV18 debt is only $300 mln and the cap on ETV channels’ purchase is also $350 mln. TV18 will get Telugu GECs, Regional Language GECs and five regional news channels in Hindi from the ETV stable to 100% ( for the Hindi news channels)

The controversy has seemingly moved on to the structure of the securities on offer as Optionally convertible debt  the option strikes being unknown as the marktt is on heightened watch for clauses allowing misuse of public financial markets and investment Banking structures though not lacking in obfuscation definitely lack the sophistication of being properly dressed up fully as Indian investors ( and Reliance ) look to transparent means to flouting regulations without blowback from the government or SEBI.


Reliance losing in brand games and policy

Reliance’s gas pricing quandary continues with warehouse owner IGL retailing gas at up to $15 and Reliance following its earlier efforts at increasing its $4.2 supply rates to PSE Oil companies with a suit against the government asking it to pay more for the gas purportedly using the IGL model for itself even as a distribution supplier and not a retail distco like IGL or Petronet LNG

Reliance has failed on maost strategic fronts except in greenfield consumer and sports ventures like the Mumbai Indians team franchise , co branded cards etc where it has yet to begin or dowes not pull significant revenue compared to the Oil brand. Reliance has been almost synonymour with petrochemicals and oil enterprise int he country away from issues of subsidy and government benefaction for a decade or so, with Petro margins and oil and gas discoveries keeping markets happy,. Its last 2 years in the dust have been tough for Indian markets as a whole and there still might be a significant correlation thouhg not an over arching one between its and Brand India’s fortunes.

Reliance I would like to believe has frittered away the market’s dull times in continuing to expect largesse and

Mumbai Indians
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“sympathetic understanding” from public sources and markets. Its consumer brands are in no position to claim leadership and thus have no significant launches to their name. Its LTE venture is  working out a smashing deal at 10X the 3G industry’s competition and while ADA group has not done nay better either, it has at least delivered on time in long gestation projects which others would not even take up including the Power sector where delays and “non performance” are more understandable. Mukesh’s Reliance has not aggressively moved in infrastructure because it knew that investors would not empathise with the “long run” financing requirements of the sector but still, its alternative plans are almost in a state of a “null” ennui without response or favor it so much loves in its dinner plate.

There are no loyal investors left onthe Reliance bandwagon and they have to move fast before the M&M’s and the JP ‘s take over fromt hem with 1/10th the capitalisation and a much larger understanding of the current market and who it can be argued worked with almost the same handicaps and invested in unforgiving propositions

Also ADA’s failures in the financial services area could be a thing of the past soon when even they can look at aggressive growth again, leaving big brother with no work or profits on hand

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Insurance Dropzone – Part II

Depression has changed a few facts in Insurance

New players like Reliance and old alike like LIC and ICICI Prudential, Axis planning IPOs ( rules require 10 yrs of Operations) _TYY4 less than 10 seconds ago from web

New players like Airtel have been non-starters _TYY4 3 minutes ago from web

Other players falling behind include quasi Asset management peddlers like ICICI Prudential and WL players like New York Life _TYY4 4 minutes ago from web

LIC held 40% share in the new business in 2007 and 56% in 2009 _TYY4 5 minutes ago from web

Shikha Sharma has joined Axis Bank as MD and ICICI wants a unified holding company alongwith SBI to manage as part of the bank!!

Indian Insurance Market: DLF to get out of Insurance when buyer is available- AIG, Prudential turned down _TYY421 minutes ago from HootSuite

Apna Bharat Mahaan – More India Trends:: Swine Flue catches Twitter 1 hour ago from TweetDeck

RT @mashable TWITTER PURGE: Top Twitter User Unfollows 106,000 People 1 hour ago from TweetMeme

Trends in apna bharat mahan – It happens for Twitterindia Bank strike – Twitter Search 2 hours ago from HootSuite

Trends in “Apna Bharat Mahaan” Twitterindia speaks for Inflation down – Twitter Search (DON’T TOUCH BIT.LY) about 2 hours ago from HootSuite

I think someone shd check the bug: they don’t shorten the complete url on search.twitter about 2 hours ago from HootSuite

Last but not the least Twitter India speaks on the RIL RNRL gas dispute about 2 hours ago from HootSuite

Posted via web from The investment blog on Post

Insurance Tweets (India) :: Midweek Dropzone

  1. New players like Airtel and HSBC have been non-starters _TYY4less than 10 seconds ago from web
  • Other players falling behind include quasi Asset management peddlers like ICICI Prudential and WL players like New York Life _TYY4half a minute ago from web
  • LIC held 40% share in the new business in 2007 and 56% in 2009 _TYY42 minutes ago from web
  • Life Insurance Corpn alone holds a book of $64 billion in investments including double digit figures in unclaimed funds _TYY43 minutes ago from web
  • Additionally, 6 pvt Pension fund managers are mandated to run state owned and independent pension funds _TYY46 minutes ago from HootSuite
  • 16 private players in Life and 11 in non life _TYY46 minutes ago from HootSuite
  • Motor and Health makes 50-60% of the non-life Insurance segment _TYY47 minutes ago from HootSuite
  • Insurance in India had last grown to $41 billion in 2007, Life marking $36 b7 minutes ago from HootSuite
  • Indian Insurance: Bajaj Allianz, Metlife and Aviva safe in India till now _TYY412 minutes ago from HootSuite
  • The Foreign partner can bring up to 49%? Insurance Reform stuck in the middle _TYY413 minutes ago from HootSuite
  • AIG wants to sell off Indian Life Insurance stake – We’re safe with IRDA watching _TYY415 minutes ago from HootSuite
  • RT @zyakaira: Indian Insurance Market: DLF to get out of Insurance when buyer is available- AIG, Prudential turned down _TYY418 minutes ago from Plaxo Pulse
  • AIG wants to sell off Indian Life Insurance stake – We’re safe with IRDA watching18 minutes ago from HootSuite
  • Posted via email from The investment blog on Post

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