India Morning Report: IDFC gets a bank license, India goes to Polls, Sun buys Ranbaxy for $4B

Though the trend is no longer on the up and up, BS revealing that IT and Pharma earnings have reached 20% of India Inc scorecards in 2013, doubling in 3 years on the depreciation dragon that caused a 14% run on the rupee just in the December Quarter. Meanwhile the Rupee is ratcheting back to 55 levels. According to RGR, the threatening levels of the Rupee appreciation start near 55 where it is overvalued to even 50. Remittances from the Middle East are flowing in mercilessly , leveraged by 5% loans in dubai and Abu dhabi as NRIs continue to fuel the investment boom’s precursors almost like any other Fed stimulus (QE)

However, as traders picks have shown in the week gone by, almost all shorts have been closed out and a further upmove for stoicks is not ruled out from here even as PSU banks and leveraged realty stocks like DLF remain outside the reach of good news and hence hold back most of the trading capital. As mentioned on Friday, March closed with $3 Bln inflows and almost two thirds is in Debt. A modi rally pre elections is scored in at 7000 as he steps closer to an absolute majority but it may prove over ambitious even for the NaMo juggernaut and markets may accede to pleas for a reaction this week before or after 6800 instead of hitting 7000 before counting closes on May 12. Assam and other NE states go to polls today

Bank Nifty has done creditably in this rally at 12550, without flatulent acccession by PSU stocks that have tripled NPAs ionthe Banking system adding INR 65 Bln NPLs to INR 3 T in Gross NPAs this quarter. Apparently metals continued advancing last week on news of a Vedanta upgrade to stable by Moodys, finally a piece of good news for the merged Sesa Sterlite and the acquired Hindustan Zinc

Arun Shourie and Arun Jaitley made the customary election time appearances for the party and are unlikely to be part of the governance framework in a Modi government that  has also sidelined MM Joshi, Yashwant Sinha, Jaswant Singh ( standing as independent from Barmer)  and son, even as LK Advani made a reasonable comeback on Modi’s behalf on the weekend as Modi asks for a personal vote for PM in the final stage. Sonia and Rahul also continue through a tough election schedule, made grueling more by continuous adds in Election surveys and a virtual estoppel on government business

IDFC’s bank license is indeed welcome for the strong business model of the company but as it starts running up to a grueling 18 month schedule to conform to all guidelines required for executing its license, most investors will be watching at current levels as a plan for reducing FII stakes to 49% is also confirmed within the new NOHFC structure for the bank. Bandhan was the other licensee. Most NBFCs in the fray including L&T finance which fully well knew the limitations a year ago, led the mid week breakdown as the RBI points to existing NBFCs and corporates to explore a differentiated licensing model. Policy day macroeconomic report for the quarter showed a limited recovery underlining the unlikelihood of any further improvements in RBI stance as recovery remains limited to fringes of the economy and a panic over the incoming government’s reform stance slowly takes hold during the crucial polling month

The mega deal announcement by Sun Pharma, taking it off its Japanese buyers for $4 Bln is still being digested by the market as the ramifications are mostly negative for Sun Pharma unless the game plan from the group is cogent and quick acting

Yes Bank is still a buy at 423 levels. Market indices are likely to continue adding straddles in the 6500+ ranges this week, unlikely to allow a sharp correction except for other news.

 

 

India Morning Report: Portfolio investment highs let India story dominate

Investment percent gdp
Investment percent gdp (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

As investment flows confirm net positive investments in India on a regular daily basis, making the total for March closer to $3 Bln or close to $150 mln per day (INR 900 Crores) , India and Indonesia keep hopes alive for Global equities and EEM flows remain negative with exits from China, Japan and Korea closing out on any hope for recovery in North Asia with China remaining dull and Japans deficit imports coming at the cost of lower Exports being kept on deficit mirroring the phase of growth investments without concurrent investing flows.

 

6590 levels obviously proved daunting for India Inc and markets returned the gains out of the morning trades after a buoyant day for equities all around, looking for new levels not belying the sad events of 2012 for Corporate India Markets stay away from Banks as markets had a big open on Monday and new levels in private sector banks seem to wait for PSU banks that continue to be neglected for their larger than life NPA sores and aches.

 

Reasons for cheering the performance of Auto and metals however still seem t o be further ahea d on the road to recovery and have hardly earned their stripes. Bank License hopefuls that still include the Aditya Birla Group and a couple of other corporate houses are probably caught unaware by the extra scrutiny imposed by the Poll panel ahead of a new government in steed at the Center. RBI has enough reason to deny corporate houses a chance to play with the banking system but it may be difficult to deny claims of available NBFC models like Aditya Birla Money ( Diversified Financial Services ) AND M&M Financial Services ( Retail unsecured/Auto Lending ) after satisfying the NOHFC structure requirements, giving the CEntral Bank a tytough decision as it probably wants to hand over no more than 4-5 new opportunities

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India Morning Report: Markets will breathe easier at 6300

Many market commentator see further moves north as highly unlikely and it does seem markets have done a fair bit already including the choppy start to 2014 as buying overwhelmed short trades. However one does not see any of the selected scrips losing much from current price levels. The Ukraine crisis fade had much to do with the afternoon bullishness and fresh buying will be allowed at lower levels in most of yesterday’s increases. Pharma and Infra trades may yet break out again with Pharma yet to take off, Cipla the ‘only’ big positive trade continuing to dominate sectoral picks. IT scrips finally yielded ground with HCL falling a few notches as market spine trades keeping interest in the stock finally seem to have exited the ‘always trying’ bellwether

New affordable housing targets in China as US and China complete their budget exercises point to the realities of the new post crisis economic melee as US Arms spending takes a backseat and China continues to increase its Defence hawkishness and faces increased executive flight risks from the Smog. Australian GDP gave the Asian markets much to cheer pre dating a secular return of investors to Asia even as China is finally deprioritised at some bigger investment houses

At home, one is still foxed by the marginalisation of LK Advani in the BJP as frankly NaMo seems a little banged up for the big job and AAP is well, a one issue pony. ( at best a canard) The fate of General Elections also thus has to be separated from that of the markets as India’s residual growth and any strategic direction will never be delivered by the Legislative arm given the state of our politics. Inspiration may be missing from the Executive or the Bureaucrat/Technocrat nexus but there is still momentum for the populace per se and India remains the best bet in global equities in such confusing times, making do with a much smalller stock of FDI for it knows its limitations. Our advantages in the English language could compare to an additional factor production given the dominance of Services and along with our expertise in more intricate subjects of the business management disciplines , we can well fashion as many competitive advantages any corporation needs to win globally as required Rajnath Singh returning to Public service will be NaMo’s other card but Congress and SP have got no leg to stand on even as the issue of the State’s division holds extreme potential before it also becomes a BJP manifesto dashboard line item.

And Nitish finally replies after 6 days on page 17 (TOI-Blr)

Seeing as NaMo’s other credentials being weak are still the best bet, Nitish finally gatecrashed onto national topics, catching his favorite Paswan in his horns. Meanwhile,  NMDC has corrected more than 17% and apparently has stable lows at 110 levels to allow further accumulation post the new CERC regime in progress with the 2014 guidelines. The Power quartet had a great start yesterday as expected and may strengthen the trend in the Power sector going forward even as cyclicals try to start back for the longer trek to the top uninterrrupted by market momentum taking the index for a roller coaster ride, including the Energy infrastructure stocks and the powerful Consumer staples like Bharti and ITC which arenot going to retreat in the bull scenario while remaining a defensive bulwark

Private Banks remain the most important component of India Bull portfolios with YES Bank leading the charge yesterday and Kotak taking a breather in the secular run. ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank continue to capture market share on and off the bourses from the embattled SBI and BOB pointing to the limits of an upward move in a side like PNB even in this critical move for the bankers, as PNB continues to show good profitability

Nadar is finally offloading HCL stock as his offspring looks to focus on the Education and philanthropy sectors even as both listed and unlisted Tech  and Outsourcing businesses battle the problem of employee commute in a society where broadband connectivity is unlikely to bring any solace or a formalised structure for the telecommuting options. India thus, retains one of the greater habits of managing to jump over bigger social potholes and non lasting technologies. ( in practice i guess with cities = potholes 😉

VIX trades apparently careened over from 15 levels itsel fin Tuesday trading back to mmatching US Vol levels at 14 as the Ukraine issue was wiped off investor tables.

The Great Indian Premier Tennis League Auctions

In other unlisted business, The mega sports franchises era continued untethered with Tennis joining the ranks of other popular sports making a commercial comeback as a four location auction saw  Mumbai grabbing the top three in Nadal, Djokovic and Andy Murray at $2 million each ( less than $2 for Djokovic and Murray)

Ecommerce has enticed Walmart to India too, even as PE players move on to above par valuations after a year of job cuts and enthusiastic middle/senior management recruitment at Management school campuses and Amazon opening its second FC in India in Bangalore

The Dell Foundation makes a return to Indian shores after the Gates Foundation confined itself to outright charity in limited indian programmes. The Dell foundation will be backing a BOP Private equity set up Intellegrow.

ET also headlines India pharmas second attempt to break into higher market shares in US generics in Complex molecules that could well go to the PE companies given the investment required and the uncertainty of time horizons ill suiting listed companies like DRL or Lupin.

Aviation revenue miles are likely picking up in the final month of Fiscal 2014 and Fixed income markets also likely to accelerate demand led price increases bringing down yields as Crude becomes a bear trade and Indian currency moves up on redenomination of the dollar forecasts down for the year in 2014. Policy Day in two weeks is unlikely to be busy for the Reserve Bank of india though the Central Bank may choose to exercise a rate hie whence the yields will come back to 9 levels before investments make a mark in the Indian recovery still flatlined below 5%

 

India Morning Report: There is no hope trade in sight

But I’d say keep accumulating as the indices break through a critical 6000 mark. Many blue chips, like in global markets offer extreme value in buys even as the speculative trade fails to take off on a delayed recovery.  Gujarat’s downfall over the small matter of a receding poverty line not helping the cause of the markets rich BJP is a puerile coincidence for the markets, but correspondingly there is no Congress faction left in the markets to buno the tanabana, Markets selling the stable BJP proposition backing out for an increased negative momentum(undesirably sharp)  on the downward side

The IT trade coming into profit taking for the almost first time except for a pre results redenomination, there ae buyers out there who are ok with the premium on Infy to a low 3475 market price and HCL Tech is good for a move of Rs 100 or more. Thus if all sectors move together like the Tuesday open, markets could see almost unheard of hlevels receding to 2012 levels no longer required by the New Dolla r prices. That also means these exits will cascade the Rupee even as it holds at 62.50 to 63 levels , that being a new fresh level for the currency. However it is still possible that with DIIs coming back as markets sell off that the gradual sell off can indeed turnaround and complete the prophesied ( by certan others , also old hands) pre election rally in India. The sell trade on ITC will likely never exit 290 levels an such picks abound with limited downside even in the correction which will confuse buyers into making losing commitments so a wait and watch is necessary. F&O markets return back to index only specials and i the downmove is to be arrested by Vols at 14 this will be a small enough move, but that is unlikely leaving vols (India Vix) ranging between 14 and 16 till the first buyers return whence new VIX levels would only see increasing volatility

However as we were stock specific going up and DIIs look for bargains to pick up pieces, there are gaps in how the markets will rebuild momentum most buyers holding on to prior 2013 selections including the new Aurobindo and Sun Pharma trades( a great defensive for mopping up your prop liquidity) in IDFC at 90, ICICI Bank almost ready at 930 levels ( the next levels are around 871), Yes Bank ( bottom at 267 will likely not reach the same so accumulating should be ready  – like a dark pool premium),  Bajaj Auto, ITC, Bharti and no – not ttk and titan currently as there is much more going down in that specific market despite the penchant of the self funded margin traders in our domestic brokerages like Angel, SMC and Centrum including the overlap with commodities wealth accounts. There will be no dlf trade north, none in Jubilant foods, titan or ttk and none in HDIL or unitech much later. Axis Bank’s orphaned again being misused in the prior rallies, leaving nay of the F&O speculators heading there at great risk from those targeting their brand of stupidity after getting on the right investments. Trading as a game may try not to suffer though sharp bear phases and quick bull recoveries are not ruled out with brokers and traders living the cricket dictum of well left alone even for great value picks in Midcaps The trades are mostly in Spreads, Bear spreads in your choice made by buying Puts at the just OTM (ATM-OTM>= 0) and selling a lower put to part fund the trade. Bull spreads, which wold be due n a couple of weeks, go bought Call just OTM (ITM-OTM>=0) which reflects better liquidity as well and thus better premiums, and partly funded by distant OTM Calls ( nly one or two will have  tested and liquid quotes where you do not pay excess liquidity spreads)

 

India Morning Report: Markets listless orphaned by a Superbowl

Superbowl sold tickets for cheap in the snow

Asian Markets are closed today and lack of Foreign investor interest on Monday Morning leaves an India open totally listless at 6100 levels and falling again, struggling after a brief respite at 6050 last week. IDFC results were inconsequential along expected lines with no fresh disbursements in this financial year but the stock has only upside left at 93 levels where it closed last week post results as it remains the only empowered player not dependent on infra approvals and a fresh book of loans in the pipe likely. Loans continued to make a better ratio of all NII at the Bank as spreads showed up resilient despite a bad interest rate environment in the nine month period reported.  Retail interest aside, the stock will remain on Institutional buy lists for time to come. It’s large provisions also make it a great equity investment with the Provisions unlikely to be called and can always be reduced prudently. Non interest income remains slave to PE principal and proprietary trading business

The Rupee starts the weak on such rumors where the deciding NDF market actually feeding on the panic mindset in low trading volumes and the onshore markets trade down but only for the morning after as the Superbowl even that draws a 200 mln audience in the US and around the world has ended minutes ago and investors will be back to a market fairly under priced by the recent pitai (hustle-bustle/buffeting not to be confused with the sage of Omaha’s investing interest)  Bank Rate will remain higher for the majority of 2014 , the prospect of rate cuts being pushed back and there being no prospects of improved transmission of monetary policy with yields pushing for higher dollar depreciation despite the RBI efforts to clamp liquidity which has time and again proved more amenable to intuitive policy than a counter intuitive rate hike move to tackle measures outside Central Bank policy. However corporates borrowing in ECB might actually be able to break the ice in terms of getting older level low rates and break the impasse eventually with increased investments (starting to flow in consumption sectors) and RBI , maintaining a new inflation hawk stance would likely have to hike rats further after the 200 Marginal channel cation and announce a veritable change in stance on rates first.

REC had started up Friday and Powergrid should join in after mi d-day if the sentiment indeed looks up. The Equity rally in the Global Markets hit a big snag in January and that is holding markets back awaiting  a confirmation of investor interest with FDI having exited Emerging markets like Turkey, Mexico, Argentina and Indonesia in a hurry with Turkey coming in midweek last to raise rates by 4% to near 12%. Goldman Sachs is in trouble again having started their own EM investments in losses having chosen MINT’s obfuscated markets and a deep and dead in the water China over India’s liquidity given the cross winds. The Rand(South Africa)  also closed above 11 to the Dollar for the first time in January.

However Emerging markets sentiment is likely to get into it in a couple of quarters from here and India will remain one of the best performing destinations having been unaffected in the post taper trade in January if it maintains 6100 levels or at least stays above 6000 levels

PNB scored great results having come in counter cyclically on raising provisions in a known strategy and NPAs under control in a rapidly deteriorating market sentiment for Banks shoring up investors to its ferry/rafters and trades 10% higher at 550 levels still a strong buy. Banknifty starts the week near a low at 10150 and is good for the trade up but one should be watchful with ugly quotes (in both the 10000 and 10500 series) in the bid auction market still holding an initiating trader to ransom with option writers playing ultra safe.

IT stocks are still overbought and Infy should retrace 3600 levels and even TCS should come down to realistic levels (but already at 2200 levels) as the IT/Outsourcing axis is not coming out as the GDP’s saviour this time either. Volatility levels are hardly material at 16 in the current rally agains 14 in the previous segment in December ’13

Energy stocks should start the climb back as and when markets stabilise, GAIL having  started the year smartly. Glenmark and Cipla/Lupin lead the Pharma rally that continues despite an ugly breakdown in Ranbaxy and Sun Pharma. We still do not believe in a robust Arvind Ltd comeback on USPA and other new limited franchises inroduced by the team since 2011. Tata Global Beverages remains a hold but the magic is still in 100% go it alone investments in India ( which are still a far cry from the carte blanche leading to exchange rate breakdowns in LatAm and SE Asia in recent EM history) Aurobindo Pharma on results and Lupin on announcements today provide good portolio picks along with Glenmark which has only $500 mln in overseas debt and among companies tapping a continuing generic opportunity in 2014 with a new pipeline

Interest in the IPL in the meantime continues strong esp evincing interest from global players in the playing XI and a fresh re-auction for all the 8 franchises picking up steam soon after the spectrum auction closes. ING and OBC related good Q3 tales as were also employing covering strategies but have not started lending/stopped losing on NPAs. Yes Bank may not fall back to 280 levels and accumulation is advised at current 300 levels. The BOI /BOB story broke down in January itself as we foretold with both banks still addding NPAs in droves. ICICI Bank’s INR 45 Bln ( including INR 30 Bln pie in restructuring) included the bank can survive the pressures with relative ease having also been proactive on definitions than the PSU penchant for playing it by the ear and losing continuously losing investor confidence and investor money as far as its favorite proprietary traders are concerned who lose another constituency in an unplanned bull attack with construction stocks Dlf and unitech still in a free fall after the ill advised run

Energy Markets react positively Midday

Gas stocks reacted positively as Petronet LNG produce became free to sell to industrial users and IGL and other domestic distributors esp IGL getting commitments to cheaper Domestic LNG in the new pricing regime. This also means domestic CNG in all markets including Mumbai where already 100% domestic gas was supplied prices of CNG and PNG were reduced by 30% and 20% while increasing IGL margins. Petronet imports LNG and will no longer be getting custom from IGL which Delhi used upto 33% imported gas

The move was a n expected one with a new Minister coming back (Moily ) in a sensitive election year . Moily is also expected to facilitate large project clearances with changes at th e Ministry of Environment (EPA Act bottlenecks)

GAIL shares the good news as renewed pressures on its subsidy costs will likely subside as it supplies to city gas companies and others at new revised rates and the policy is deemed stable after LPG quotas to residences have increased to 12 cylinders per year and gas TX likely to increase volumes with good results reported Thursday

India Morning Report: ICICI Bank, Bharti surprises on bottom overriding expiry sentiment

Or rather the headline should probably not read having overridden and markets continue weaker as a Strong Earnings calendar for Wednesday in the US drowns out brokerages and analysts still following the Indian open. Asia is weak on Thursday as US Treasury yields have continued south despite the additional $10 Bln in Taper added to the Global tab by the US Fed overnight. With only $65 B in asset purchases, it is a measure of the importance of sentiment in fund counts as Global markets respond in weakness after a weaker China spectre makes EMs already in a bout of outflows a queasy place. Leaving apart those who believe India is apart of the Fragile Five, this could be a huge buying opportunity as predominantly unlisted markets like Ukraine and Turkey bear the brunt of asset volatilities. Indian Rupee has opened close to 63 and pressures have receded quickly again. 6050 levels on the Nifty make it almost not tradeable in any direction this session despite expiry

Bharti’s results were an eyeopener, and the stock should be an overpowering Buy in morning trades at 304 levels. ICICI Bank also reported positively and is duly being punished to 975 levels for its rising NPA score and a gross total of INR 120 Bln or 12000 crores in restructuring assets including the 100% pipeline ( which is a 100% count on probability) but is a great pick at 930 levels probably and adding the risk it would never fall to that place, I would have been accumulating before he spurt and now after I should continue to buy. IDFC is surprisingly again substituted out for making space in portfolios and is dull ahead of tomorrow’s results, another Overpowering BUY call.

Bharti did well to double profits to INR 6 Bln esp in catching up on Data with a INR 75 ARPU and improving call realisations to parity with Idea at 37 paisa. Quarterly losses in Africa will likely continue around the $100 mln mark (qualitative expectation) Analysts apparently expected much more from Airtel coming in and that is why the Earnings business remain highly qualitative in India and expectations score less than Economic surveys and GDP inflation estimates on accuracy.

Nifty would probably not drop out of 6000 levels, but there would still be a square chance ( in double digits) of the index not coming back over 6100 at expiry and starting North in the mainline trend, with stock specific calls in closing trades today itself for the new series. We still expect a  short trade in Maruti in the new series. Biocon and Auro Pharma have definitely made a mark with investors and Glenmark /Cadila continue to be great picks. Markets at score additions t any blue chip portfolio. NTPC announces a 20% jump in sales as Coal supplies make for better ower generation ahead of new incentive structures

Overall though the correction remains a proactive wait and watch on news from the US and China, it has taken a sharp toll in four short days. IT exits will continue es as Hiring season news is no longer neutral for the biggies and Genpact reduces its dependence on assured GE business in BPO sector

Markets are also looking at thick fund switching as Proprietary books try to fuel the Hero boom and defensives get churned from earlier in the week though Pharma has not seen many exits except in Sun Pharma. Adrian Mowat had a great story to tell in the pre open and we all wait as the market along with Hero also plays out a 10% fall in Titan’s quarterly revenues reacting to proprietary favorites in a shallow market

The Banknifty, after a single trade whisaw from 10600 to 10300 is likely to be a positive trade in the new series after the bashing on the rate cut refuses to yield anything in now undervalued plays except the NPA/PSU stock. ITC remains on the upswing, likely bottomed out in Baja Auto before Hero earnings as well ( less than 50% probability)

India Morning Report: Markets digest a rate hike and the new Maruti equation

India Auto ExpoYou heard it in 2009, Suzuki may go it alone:

The 7th Maruti Suzuki plant in Gujarat adding capacities to its 1.75 mln cars from Gurgaon and Manesar which has already seen union troubles in the North, will actually belong to Suzuki in a new Wholly owned subsidiary and as royalty terms have not changed the new production available from Gujarat in 2015 will improve MSIL’s margins. MSIL already is the dominant component of Suzuki’s global sales. The markets are however punishing Maruti for the loss of faith , the automaker springing the surprise from its ranks mid afternoon yesterday. Today’s morning quotes will be 20% lower and likely fall a further 5% tomorrow though 1200 is improbable. A Suzuki coming into India alone means it may be planning exiting its Maruti investment except for its commitments to successive Indian governments over the years. Maruti trade is being closed within this series as speculators likely get ready for a short trade in the new series after having been farmed in the construction sector. The Gujarat plant will supply only to Maruti production

Biocon is back in Volume breakouts from the switchout in cash

Rate Hike

Markets will likely digest the rate hike given good liquidity, as mentioned in Bank Policy Tuesday yesterday however the 8.5% and lower yields will now wait till end 2014 and at least one quarter of good growth with strong positive investments. The higher rate environment may not translate into higher retail rates and credit expansion may also not be threatened, but was it required? Yields did move separately from Currency markets before policy and thus Policy rate hikes squeezed the exchange rate back to 62.50 levels

Airtel again, Idea bhi

Airtel is definitely back in the mix, changes at the top likely positive even for Manoj Kohli who finally moves to the new businesses invested from the Telecom win for the Mittals over the years. Idea’s ARPU gains despite revenue per minute dying means both Idea and RCOM are also likely to see long trades and Bharti remains the back bone of he market as IT and Pharma break down. Tomorrow would probably be ITC again and the day after that Bharti

Bharti PAT is up 20% on quarter and ARPUs to 195 frm 192 spectrum auctions stamp their market print on Feb 03 and Feb04(post announcements). Africa ARPUs are up 10c to $5.80 or INR 360.

Sell 6100 Puts

If you are finally tired of shorting the market and Ashwini baiting from your camp you may join in too but ahead of expiry, 6100 uts are likely to look tempting and markets will close 6100 with such a huge magnitude of newsflow  getting hope trades shucked off by early market moves last week and shorts on DLF , Unitech and HDIL would likely be the biggest winners of the series. The days trading would likely see a similar mood sneaking into 6200 uts , which however is a function of the other market forces discussed with a 40 point increase in NIFTY being par and leaves tthe markets at 6160 and markets may not want to control further BEAR GREED till todays close whence the 6200 trade still rewards that additional risk

Banks are a big buy

10,600 seems to have done it for the Banknifty and investors are likely to stay glued to ICICI and HDFC Bank on the rise. Axis Bank fell 3% yesterday at the fag end of the correction ( on markets breakdown post Maruti announcements) ICICI Bank reports with India Starbucks (Tata Global) . Starbucks ma also prefer a new 100% investment in India after 25 stores have opened with Tatas.

After ICICI Bank’s clean sweep today, tomorrow will see earnings from Hero sandwiched by Bank of India and SBT and after the Adani and IDFC reports on Friday we close out earnings season with a fairly robust performance, near 20% profit growth still standard fare for the biggies.

Other Results

REC, M&M and Cox & Kings report on the 14th of Feb, ILFS Transpo, Page (and Lovable?) and Finolex Cable on 12th and Bombay Dyeing on the 13th. Lovable is doing well in the trade prioritiising for the New FMCG adds in 2010 IPOs

Bank Policy Tuesday: RGR raises rates to 8% on Repo and 7% on Rev Repo

Maintaining the Channel at 1% and the CRR at 4% , the third quarter policy will go down well if markets in credit ( inter bank markets) continue to gravitate to reverse repo rates for borrowing in lieu of improved liquidity. Most hawkish analysts would improve their forecasts of rate hikes basis the new policy implemented in the third quarter. Our day’s review of Urjit Patel recos shows it is unlikely to be in an implementable form for some time and cannot be proposed into active roster during FY15 and probably FY16, but then it is a function of Central politics in 6 months from now

The Macro review admits to a loss of grow momentum. CPI declined as food groups obliged WPI at a four month low and the report notes the mall uptick in Cre inflation which is still very much below a healthy 2%

Hardening prices of services and key intermediates seen in conjunction with rising bank credit, increase in order books, pick-up in capacity utilisation and the decline in inventories of raw materials and finished goods in relation to sales suggests that aggregate demand pressures are still imparting an upside to overall inflation.

Policy stance incorporates the glide path to CPI envisaged in the UPA report in six months

Term repos were conducted in the later weeks of January despite Advance Tax payments to improve liq after Government Balances rose. Trade deficit is down by 25% in nine months. CAD has been forecast below 2.5% in March and CPI(Combined) expected to be ranging 7.5-8.5% at the end of the fiscal and FY15 before the next target of 6% kicks in.

The GDP fan shows a 4-7% range by Q4 FY 15 with expectations of growth from agri included in the RBI prognosis, forgoing their choice of a sticky move in Repo rates north to 8%. However the new Governor does admit this was an on the edge decision leaving further moves to the south probably open if his version of noise in the inflation is rested appropriately further, and improving chances of holding at 8% on the Repo rate and 9% on the MSF. On the whole, post policy action is still likely to raise interest rates in the Indian Economy now prior to the returning of the miracle grow / prodigal (not RGR reference obviously) though banks may not raise lending or deposit rates and Transmission issues remain with Banks using excess liquidity in borrowing from LAF for investments(govt borrowings/adjustment auctions)

Import controls, mostly on Gold brought CAD 1.2% in Q2 and the liquidity measures on Sept 5 , rejuvenating post impact from the currency crisis resulted in inflows of $9.1 Bn in equities and $14.1 Bln outflows in the Debt segment till Mid November (since May) were balanced apparently by $3.8 Bln in inflows in Debt since

MSF rate was only brought down by 150 bp since with elevated inflation expectations resulting in a repo hike of 50 p till now, which is likely achieved objective but still leaves the threat of increasing repo rates out, we would say another 50 b p is ready in the bag assuming yields travel to 8.5% , which would have been stable conditions this policy but are likely to be six months out from here given normal growth henc as yields likely move back to the 9 benchmark in the intervening period

Markets dipped on worries of UPA report making it and the unexpected rate hike before biting the bullet at 6130 levels during the presser.

India Morning Report: Crude down, Gold trade dead, MSF cut a real boon?

Boon Lay Extension
Boon Lay Extension (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sorry, I’d rather understand why the party for reduction in MSF and INR 170 Bln of Borrowing added in .25% of the Deposits. The channel to the low repo rate of 7.50% is still 150 points after the cut and the 10 yr yields are not really expected to move south from 8.6% ‘except at the low rate of’ 50 basis points in the next three months it had already proffered before Rajan made the change.

Anyway, markets at least recognize or get their bank spokespersons/contacts to say banks are at ease again so the 5950 mark has come. already on the markets. the Upward potential is truly limited at this juncture, all the media noise budget (DAVP one mite bite) for showing activity in the Economy not making up for the spending cuts to stay  in and the investments still a far way off.

Again, however, markets per se are undervalued excpt that they wait on such changes in fundamentals which are India’s bane for moving up while China gets a free look again just for having underperformed as it finds no legs in manufacturing worth reviving the Economy in goods production.

Cabbage Market
Cabbage Market (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Rajan seemingly has made it clear he will be taking the Repo rate up again, and as the October meet approaches, markets will be equally quick to reach the bottom of the 5750 – 6000 range of the markets. the Reo rate at 7.50% already looks steep enough to me esp as trading markets stay idled to a high rate pre Taper.

I rather liked the Welfare flavor of August & September and wonder if it will come back again. At least its things we can do. The exchange rate is no good at 61.77, and hopefully its just waiting to go u to 60 levels as signs of others interested in the breakdown to 77-78 recede.

The inflation rate Formulatonomics of getting to that ratio as differential to  ‘PPP’ are rather lost to most with a real India, Economics or Finance background though.

You want PPP, you should go for a reference you can live with and that still counts as the Mac or the Pizza probably where we are definitely looking for a rate under 40 instead.

Indian inflation would count as facts show as deadbeat deflation at 6% itself, as the Economy at 4% is almost a dead duck in the water ( in India references, it being the flat minimum of National activity)

India Morning Report: Here comes 6000? and what the banks will do in 8.6% yield scenarios

Yes Bank
Yes Bank (Photo credit: magnusvk)

Apart from the unremediated concerns in the Fixed Income market, yesterday’s rally created an awareness of the potential inflow obvious to insiders earlier this year. i.e. Around the Globe, India remains the most attractive investment destination after being clamped on with the rest of the globe in recovery awaiting elections to be over here in policy action and growth parameters and local consumption and investment makes this story unique.

Infosys is also likely to deliver significant outperformance at the Q2 announcements a week later and interestinly, the markets are correcting Infy’s recent run up already to 3000 levels and that could mean one rally is due in October and even September saw 6148 based on the return of inflows.

Banks of course in the meanwhile are looking askance and a standoff with the Central Bank is in the works while Markets continue to worry about Banks other than PNB, BOI and the private Sector banks. Banks probably still look for opportunities with the currency not stabilised and may have to worry about increase in Deposit rates. The Bank Nifty churn would have been isolated easier if they had concentrated on shorting SBI which despite its distribution continues to spring a growing NPA basket every quarter instead of delivering on the retail growth and profitability they continue to tom-tom to any analyst who would spare time for management commentary

Considering that this 8.6% yield on the 10  year comes after banks got a whole Trillion and Half from non penal overnights at the Central Bank and NIMs are protected and increasing, it is quite likely a matter of concern es in the light of the Rupee strength that yields are wary of coming down

Penal rates and those new effective rates on the MSF may however still be withdrawn another inch or more on the October policy to bring the channel back to 100 bp. ( For details flip thru previous issues or ask us) PSU banks received another large Capital infusion yesterday to keep lending rates in check(SBI is funded separately)

Bajaj Auto and ITC probably continue their northward rally till the mid results change of weights while those looking for a correction in Tata Steel are likely to have given up now, while Tata Global investments may take off only after the company itself stakes out a minimum of 200 Starbucks stores ven as wholesale auctions improved pricing for India exports but output and hence export takeoff was lower

Pending infra projects are not going to take off in a hurry but 5900 levels should see both DIIs and FIIs buying and F&O interest has definitely moved up the range from 5900 to 100 &6300 than yesterday’s 5900 Call OI that signified markets ranged to 5900 levels on the upside. Gold and Silver are still negative. India and US in the meantime, the two strongest markets and recoveries continues to once again falter in Services PMI and thence composite PMI because of spending cuts

 

India Morning Report: Rajan appoints committees for everything, Rupee to discover under 66 levels at open?

The change in Monetary and Fiscal policy stance is fairly well obscured by the need for consensus but with Overseas Direct Investments retained at 400% of Net Worth and removal of hedging restrictions by allowing rebooking for both Exporters (50%) and Importers (25%) or Dollar Swaps at 100bp better rates with the Central Bank for FCNR deposits till November in existing schemes could just be a sign of old policy pieces being consigned to vestigial life, though such reform reaams have come and passed India Inc by for almost millenia, and at last 67 years f independent India. However, these limit relaxations typically let th Rupee sales accelerate into a new orbit usually and that is definitely unlikely

as predicated last week, S&P, Moody’s have been watching these developments only as a fallout of their prognostications of India’s twin deficit weakness and are much reiterating their last assessment when S&P had recommended a negative outlook based on a 1 in 3 chance of downgrade which USA had barely avoided. the Ratings firms are likely to be under pressure to change their ways and the step difference between Asia, Europe and probably from office to office of the agencies which reflects a woefully inaccurate picture in ratings , that are still catching up with munis and structured products n US and Europe and illiquid CDS in Europe and Asia

IMF Economic Counselor and Research Department...
IMF Economic Counselor and Research Department Director Raghuram Rajan briefs the press on the World Economic Outlook on April 13, 2005 at the International Monetary Fund Headquarters (IMF), Washington, D.C. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Land and Food Bills have passed both houses seemingly without riposte and the Pension and Insurance Bills are next. However, back on Rajan’s first day, some other welcome proposals include allowing NBFC Prepaid cards for payments, starting national Gyro payment services (Nachiket Mor -Inclusion)and Rajan himself sitting on the committee to decide stringer  norms for NPAs and concerns on restructuring yielding more NPAs than normal accounts. Banks will be investing lesser in Gilts and SLR rates going down could be still a long drawn process while Branching being freed may be some incentive for Foreign banks also to execute subsidiaries. Most of these proposals will be overseen by various Deputy Directors an ex Governor Jalan will head the committee on  new licenses due soon after Jan 2014 when Anand Sinha leaves.

Markets otherwise keep responding to new signs from metals after a record comeback month in July/August and the banks will show their hands on the policy through their price movements the remaining two days of the week. Liquidity restrictions are still on and India is fighting the worst currency crisis of the last six generations

Indices again moved the entire range crossing 2% from 5340 to 5450 levels by the close and Wall Street enjoyed one of its best jumps overnight n Auto sales data. European PMI cements the days of crises as past though growth is yet patchy and China is the pod the global investors still look to, despite their repeated equity failures in the market

 

India Morning Report: The lack of political prowess of the Nitish Modis and the NaMos, Advanis and Dear Rahul!

The General Post Office and Reserve Bank of In...
The General Post Office and Reserve Bank of India building from across Lal Dighi in B.B.D.Bagh, Calcutta (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

India Morning Report: And after 5600, is 5500 ..then 5400, 5300, 5100, 4900, 4500, and on it goes pegging poor buyers..

That would be one loose definition of retail investors currently ready to be pegged as not so germaine and India being resilient and a winning post even as RGR takes the board at the Reserve Bank of India. Vallabh Bhansali tried a valiant effort while MF managers ( again to be free non academic and interested in discussing with the educated layman who has other professions to tend) can be loosely ascribed as the educated investors’ abode and banks as continuing bulwarks of pressure for enterprise even as the NPA saga will not bleed anew but will extend its lasting periods well into 2016.

However if you do not ascribe to these notions as a first party or as third party notions of whats ailing india, which we would happily accept is not so, coalition politics to come and the lack of political prowess of the Nitish Modis and the NaMos, Advanis and Dear Rahul are going to cost India inc dear. One of course does not mean this as a crutch of benefits of stable seating charts at the RBI here but the ailments of the system will not be solved by monetary policy and one sees , like the continued selling of infracos and infra NBFCs even as banks rebound on the news of the new Chicago educated governor taking over (Deepak Parekh also was prominent among those welcoming the change). Fixed income Yields and more promisingly CDS spreads could respond to the timely change of regime at the Reserve Bank

Beautiful Gold Jewelry Designs from Golden India
Beautiful Gold Jewelry Designs from Golden India (Photo credit: epSos.de)

JLR results will be down this term, the defensives have been hit hard with HUL and ITC responding negativey to being tagged defensives after just having broken into growth on the trendline for the 3rd time together in a decade. Its a wonder SESA Goa , Sterlite and Tata steel are still falling sharply and that just means the market is unlikely to quit correcting till the CAD measures yet to be invented by us or experienced Economists like RGR and CRA (Rangarajan) are implemented to sustain the Rupee. Pharma and IT, the big white hope of those living and operating other Indian businesses from outside India, hardly seem geared for growth, most sticking to just small additions fom conversions of Fx and Exports though a stable share not growing fr pharma including the continuing risers in Stride Arcolabs o rthe youngest pig to the slaughter , Torrent even as Glenmark and not Sun pharma look great investments for the future

DIIs are still not biting and rates will be hiked sooner than later even as RGR tries to keep the bridge between the politicos facing elections and rolling out the first entitlements bill (in cash).Imagining Jet Airways at 300 levels while celebrating the final inking of a 24% stake from Etihad would have been unlikely even for those who started 5, 10, 15, 20 or 25 years ago.

The Sensex could not keep its morning cues intact going into the 11 AM post morning session and may sjow one more steep eigenvalue of fall on th Nifty and Sensex even befor the weekend comes but then it is becoming likelier at these levels after 12 sessions that the markets will not be freshly bet short and that this time means you should take one big short but it is improbably improbable that from here the hedge you take in buying the Banknifty will possibly probably and without virtual nanobots, make likely more money in the period to August end of series. So, come ray with me the markets last at 5500

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India Morning Report: A ferocious return to the nineties, and bye Mr Singh?

The Nifty Nineties
The Nifty Nineties (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Ajay Srivastava of dimensions woke me to another nineties dictum we used to abide by. The higher the interest rates, the more money for the banks to make. Of course the transition will be difficult but it may well happen that while the markets readjust sharply (and hence the ferocious return above may well be antsy pantsy horrific and squeamishly fragile)

The Dollar has finally found its match of the Indian Hockey team’s heydeys. But before we go for the corny stuff, the details as we see it. interest rate margins will expand as banks , esp midcaps start the healing process for themselves by raising lending rates (YES has increased base rate today by 25 bp) The capital markets will continue to slide but once the banks break their downtick as the rupee’s downtick will continue beyond such levels till even periliously close to the 70s whether India’s sovereign bonds borrowed in rupees or dollars.

Banks as they are wont to, will soon be found readjusting faster and in a position to look at the bright side of things as India Inc wakes up to the new levels to operate International business at, and markets will even return to celebrate another round of robust reported results from Bharti today morning.

Double digit rates are probably not so tough for India Inc but that move has definitely failed for the Central bank and for the Fin Min. However the UPA/Congress has had  a few laughs in the last few days and its still not party time for the NaMo face to take over the Indian mindset.

Indices are probably not going below 5300 levels but those looking for a return to 5800 may be a little buzzed by unwanted attention (and crank calls, maybe) to their person and offices. Markets will probably wait to rise back (and will keep falling as opposed to nursing the morning’s wounds) till the close of week operations but FIIs had probably started closing out their hedge positions last week and yesterday so the indices will know how much exactly the rupee exchange matters. however at this end of the business cycle, credit growth is definitely unhindered from here. Also it is a relief  to see DLF fall back to 150 levels , though at a very broad market cost as the distinction between infrastructure investment and constrction growth finally gets encilled in on other India experts. Funnily enough even REC is also 150 levels right now as NBFCs will get boxed in by their banks again the fastest, in the most efficient leg of the rate transmission workaround and banks will also probably reassess the advantages f having increased monetary transmission to retail and wholesale markets as they had ample liquidity for more than 12 months whence rate cuts cycle was squeezed. rupee well nigh opened to 61 levels in the morning nd it is atleast one market where the droping vlues have not poduced many losers yet (ha ha!)

Bank Policy Tuesday: Quarterly review cannot shake off jitters – Taking on the mountain

..and not the molehill

 

Fiscal policy
Fiscal policy (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

 

 

This is that kind of belief that turns policy makers into Monster characters as most of the markets are certain of a humdrum ho hum restrictions will remain for some time with an even optimistic note or two in tomorrow’s policy announcement.

 

But markets cannot help but respond to the coming policy event with trepidation and declining interest as they try to still assume a worse scenario. It is however not changing the fact that Rupee is under pressure and the policy easing initiated one policy date earlier than required has died an equally abnormally death and will not ensue to support any domestic investment growth.

 

As has already been proved however, much of Corporate India was actually not using credit probably already on its books as credit flows slowed to an all time low of year/year growth of 13.5% last month and has improved since.

 

The Reserve Bank of India thus having responded worthily to a Hobson’s choice is now more or less resigned to following it up as a Global cycle of lower growth and incomplete recovery has probably been ignored by the markets in the assumption that India’s outperformance therein was because of only its global trade posits and thus new investments continuing to elude India just turned into a chaining of expectations gone awry from no new investments making it as a suspended fiscal policy and reform because of political middle of the line voting lines cannot be repaired by any Central Bank. However India’s Hindu rate of growth posit may also be tested despite the recognition of this failure widely (and the completion of this government’s agenda by political fear) in terms of a requirement to carry Interest rates to double digits for at least a decade or two as there is no new consumer credit or consumpion demand except in unsecured loans and Housing and Auto markets suffer a chaied breakdown from the slowdown improbable but still awaited in th event growth recovery does not come.

 

Infrastructure investments should not have been shot in the foot midway and the wholesale bank  portfolios are unlikely to be able to stand to the situation in case Deposit rates start rising further from here which is always a binary possibility thus making it a half chance too.

 

 

 

India Morning Report: GDP forecasts look for their pound of flesh, india inc reports (This week in Asia on The Banking and Strategy Initiative: advantages.us)

The old RBI Building in Mumbai
The old RBI Building in Mumbai (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Reserve Bank of India pulled up the bank lending rates for its MSF (the emergency lending by RBI at the top of the rate channel prescribed) from 8.25% to 10.25% yesterday and networks are agog with the presumptive lockdown on India’s money markets esp inter bank liquidity finally pushing the short end of the term structure up a couple of hoops to 8.15% at the open as visible in one year forwards.

In sum, though equities will keep a small range around a ower bound 5900 and above, strangles are already priced near 0 at 138 for the short 5900 puts, 6000 calls showing trades to be unremunerative for this week and the profit making probaility of this depleted range is tenuous both fro m the tightness of the range and the inherent balance engineered in the markets giving way to any bull/bear at the slightest pretext

RBA had earlier shown in its minutes released that they considered the rate cuts to be done with, triggering a conventional run on the Dollar in that currency bringing it up by 1% . The Rupee has opened 1.5% stronger in morning trades but as pressure from Economist desks builds up to a crescendo and GDP forecasts are cut 75-100bps at Morgan Stanley among others to near 5% for 2014, we are witnessing a characteristic one time correction as policy locks in to the only possible market view while hoping for a trade led recovery down the line and acts on the limited dollar trade that continues to cause disruptions in our Economic cycle especially related to our dependence on imported fuels

Traders would hardly have been in place for the correction on Thursday and Friday as the markets are still positively rewarding good results which when they com are as big as over 20% sales and bottomline growth on a regular basis. However , the downward move also lacks momentum and like the rupee in the other direction, equities will only trade up the rest of the day after opening 100 points down on the Nifty. Some longer term shorts may stay in as characteristic hedges performed over the weekend and Monday when indices opened down today in differential performance terms to trading positions and long investment portfolios. ETF outflows from Emerging markets were just under $10 Bln in June with $6 Bln exiting the iShares MSCI EM fund but that is still 1 in 10 of the funds and funds will continue to be sticky in India where the growth paradigm is still relatively safe on th ground despite the consumption led industrial production going negative marking the toughest bottom for Indian prospects. Manufacturing makes less than 20% of India’s GDP but is on par with Exports and Global trade lacking growth claws would unhinge the one sided growth story that has always precluded a deeper range of opinions on India from global commentators instead shined by China.

India’s equity markets being deep makes it impossible for hot money to follow on this morning’s run and even as the spike in Fixed income markets unhinges bank business models the problems will likely be fied with a continuing positive bias before the end of the week unlike such runs in other Asian markets like indonesia, Korea or Thailand However a bottom in bank stocks is yet not known or targeted and ther emay be no directional trades in the interest sensitive sectors in India

 

Rupee impact: The Free fall continues, small snag on equities

A world map of countries by gross domestic pro...
A world map of countries by gross domestic product at purchasing power parity per capita in 2007 from the International Monetary Fund. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Unfortunately, with India inc again adding only probably less than 10% of its External Borrowing Capacity in debt, the Rupee and the equity markets have consequently snagged on the  Asian free fall, and now pro bably rupee has a trading target of 4-5% in this move to achieve the new 2014 equilibrium. While the stabiity is currently lacking it is primarily because for the Rupee it is not a daily volatility that is germaine to the currency markets and the trading range is much smaller than the other asian markets while it is still not picked upa s foil to the ultimate managed currency the Yuan which is a precipitating event of greed in the “Currency Wars” mechanism

Having said that, if one were to herewith propose a new rupee exchange with its limited degrees of freedom, the government cannot and should not bother about stepping in till even 65 levels and find meanwhile a longer run solution to the CAD, while the markets will take the Rupee down to 65 and fundamentally destroy the entropy required for recovery to resume in the aftermath and while it may be a jurassic/triassic notion of yore , destory the eigenvalues of Purchasing power parity much before the global market engagement is  increased   to a true equilibrium.

Mumbo jumbo apart 58.50 should hold because of the stability of governance and the defeat of inflation but if it is whirled through the week, it will tip to 60-61 levels and thence may not ever return to anywhere near Friday exchange levels because the fifth of GDP that is exports will straddle the rupee for the remaining term of FY14 for Global trade agreements for the year

Graph of the Gross Domestic Product GDP (at Pu...
Graph of the Gross Domestic Product GDP (at Purchasing Power Parity-PPP), per capita, as a function of per capita Toes. Year 2004. Data available online at http://www.iea.org (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

On the equities front, today’s event of correlation in moves actually mirrors the hidden correlation in capital moving out primarily from debt and in probably a stabilised form of market prediction from JP Morgan asking that the recovery bottom has not happened and will happen till now. While the RBi therefore is discouraged from rate action next Monday, it has put in motion a cascade of rate cuts which it must follow through and avoid running into damage control esp as Fixed income Markets will continue yielding lower on higher demand despite FIIs leaving Indian debt in the first pike exit of QE linked withdrawal from Asia as the lowest volatile investment and thus unlikely to produce ‘abnormal profits equated with Asia’. The PPP map of the world in the meantime as reproduced here from a long left to be updated web provider of images shows the fast losing relevance of this indicator and probaby needs a trading measure to it to harness its gains.

 

RBI policy announcement May 2013: Repo rate cut to 7.25% CRR unchanged

Yields on the 2022 bonds moved down 5 bp to 7.77% in pre policy trading and kept the gains as RBI announced the expected cut of 25 basis points in the Repo rate despite macroeconomic concerns in a bid to sledgehammer the supply side weaknesses that have disabled policy transmission and kept illiquid markets near the marginal standing facility rates and the higher reverse repo rate which correspondingly moves down to 8.25%., The RBI emergency lending rates (MSF) are exactly 7.75%

The response follows a weak macroeconomic assessment yesterday and the hawkish tone though warranted has brought markets down to 5950 levels. markets correspondingly ill understand that “RBI has played true to form” *(ET lead on ET Now) and finally keep the faith in the economy after having been ebullient on the expectation of this rate cut. RB has cut the growth forecast on the GDP in this fiscal — FY 14 to 6% and inflation target is a 5.5% for this fiscal. The Macro review also highlighted that CAD is likely a risk till is funded by external capital flows (read new foreign debt)

The presser after the announcement focuses on the issues of liquidity and continued omo support from RBI

 

India Morning Report: Markets horrified by ‘unaffected airs’ slip back to keep rate cut

English: Logo of Bharti
English: Logo of Bharti (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

Markets sit on a big slip as they await the 11 AM announcement of policy rates and the afternoon meet the press with bankers. interestingly this is the closest to near unanimity in market expectations held together by all stakeholders including different institutional and brokerage based analyst teams on research and bank economists and other commentators that the RBI will be giving a 25 bp cut after inflation has fallen in line and the need of a stimulus is par for the course. However, the likelihood of the unlikely event is still finite in that no one expects the Central Bank to ignore the macro weaknesses and so far the prudent fiscal path is not more than a promise either. To cut the longer story there short, the question of the RBI not following through has really made the sentiment jittery(threatening?) ahead of the announcement

 

Interestingly GMR to take a infraco on point kept its head above water(closed positive) while the Anil companies celebrated the gold rush with the rally peaking above 6000 levels and Bharti’s deal today for 5% equity (new, post issue stake 5%) to be issued to the Qatar fund or other events like results are largely being ignored in the morning session. The session’s preparation for the q-case of the Central Bank not conducively incentivizing the markets thus means that the rally is still on and will not breach 5800-5900 levels on the downside after a sharp derisory devaluation of the PER of the indices today. The optimism on the surveys has however like us in the past led to a forecast skew towards the right with the india positive commentators opting for a 50 bp cut signal from RBI

 

Regardless of the bank policy announcement however, its outlook will remain cautious till the end of this quarter bu t may include data to prove reasons for becoming bullish from July 2013

 

 

 

Bank Policy Tuesday: DMK steals policy limelight, Rate cut hopes of India Inc

Though we did not suspect the political mulligatawny soup that will lead to a face off in the Parliament on the Lankan Tamils issue and should in fact be used by Indian polity to align to US on this issue and come down on belligerent China friendly Lanka, the very least done today in the political arena with the Nifty barely holding 5750 and yields hardening closer to 8%  has been the virtual throwing away of the monetarists wheel in what can be educative to all large economies hoping for moneteraistic target based Economics to bring home the citizens out of the global crisis of growth overtaken by stagflation.

RBI allowed another 25 bp cut in Repo rates to 7.5% and though it seems pat following fixed yields early 2013 move below 8%, it removes any further room for easing for the Central Bank. Cheap RBI lending thru the LAF should have already impacted yields to move down as inflation remained in control. LAF rates are now 6.5%. RBI has also posited the MSF as bank rate at the upper end of the channel in the mid term review. India’s GDP growth was the lowest in the last 15 quarters at 4.5% in Q3 of FY13

The Governor meets the press at 2:30 pm.

SEMI Breakfast - Fixed Income/Credit Analysis
SEMI Breakfast – Fixed Income/Credit Analysis (Photo credit: ceonyc)

Rate Cut Economics

The bank rate cut to 7.75% was already an avoidance response to the  Type II error of over tightening the monetary turf by the RBI which is already conducting large OMOs to provide continuing liquidity. The last one was just this week , the 3 day repo accounting for INR 1350 bln. In real terms rates have only risen after the last rate cut announcement in Indian Fixed Income markets despite the appreciation in the Rupee and counting today’s rate cut of 25 bps thats 50 bp of rate cuts shouted out by India bears waiting for the debt trap that India Inc could never be. Indian credit stock instead still remains the lowest in Developing and Advanced Economies globally at 75% of GDP ( both data points in this argument have come from this week’s RBI data releases)r

The Challenge ahead

Despite the 30% growth in NBFC credit this January (based on RBI data released for segmental review of bank credit) credit growth will likely challeng e the 16% non food credit target. In market terms(equities) , though 5750 levels are holding on the Nifty, expectations have definitely been turned down three notches after the violent 100 point mid day reaction and as profit growth eludes and food inflation rules the rest of 2013, real income growth may finally turn out to be a mirage and bring down curtains on future consumption growth for the nation as it dives into political uncertainty. RBI rate cuts could have been avoided to keep the market discipline better in later months when the fixed income markets would have been in situ better able to target a downward slide in yields and keep ahead with higher growth enumeration as non food inflation instead of staying low now tries to bite back with global demand improved by China’s lot However all that still means India grows by 5% in FY13. The lower data of worse cases for FY 14 enumerated above are still low probability events and can be easily avoided though these downside risks should also blanket any other global downside risks.

Foreign investment flows

India remains a global island of relative comfort for investors engendering continuing foreign investor interests that should as posited turn positive as the global downside risks emerge stronger esp for Europe and competitors like Korea and Singapore (affected by the China story) get bit while others like Thailand may still not provide the required depth to global investors. BRICs and N11 stories have at one time or other shown how executive decision can help them pull past the Indian jugger naut and India needs to be better positioned to respond in global markets thru joint policy and private sector action.

 

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India Morning Report: Imported Durham Wheat and the JP Morgan BPO

Canara Bank Near Town Hall
Canara Bank Near Town Hall (Photo credit: SumaVV)

What would your friendly neighbourhood snitch or hag have you see in India’s future now? BPOs recruiting for Voice processes and documentation work or captives claiming they are not BPO for the same work and a hoard of imported foods you buy now but will not afford on a salary six months after.

Unfortunately, our elites continue to get such side issues with  India education after being worse than a blind bat and halfway through their work life but one should not lose much sleep over such influences in your life as more and more recruiting shifts out of the magical BPO/IT abyss and returns to active traders, banking sales and i am sure a lot of non business administratives already pulled into quasi business development roles at one man MNCs having finally run their roost.

At least in the shadow banks and the foreign brokers we have been increasing recruiting breadth for the last 5-6 years despite shutdowns at Citi , RBS and UBS. Of course the recruiting profession itself and over the hill 50 something bankers remain unqualified in the new world so the global strategic direction is unlikely to be set anywhere nice soon so be careful what you wish for in a job or you might get performance linked appointments with fancy names and quickerr shutdowns than the Sasketchwan scare in North Canada

ICICI Bank is picking up the slack thankfully on a stronger day at the bourses and more thankful because that means market interest in SBI or PSU banks is increasingly turning merely technical in nature and ?india’s story of future consumption expansion in the hinterland is not making anyone secrete excessively rooting for SBI and the dud dudders from Union Bank to Canara and Syndicate, Dena, BOB and PNB hardly looking like having recovered or improved from their unholy business ethic of the last two decades which they were seemingly not a part of.

skyrise
skyrise (Photo credit: Brennan Mercado)

Etihad had another finger in India’s aviation pie though the reporting team got busted as a Bombay Tabloid by the last century’s sole network on Indian equities and is actuallya  scoop by Mirror  ( the city based TOI daily magazine of local specific mantra)

Bank Results Season: Earnings Surprise(India Earnings): LIC Housing Finance (Q2 2013) Grows Loan Book To INR 690b

Though RBI ‘s new norms for banks may not be par for the course for the LIC subsidiary, it is growing strongly in loan assets after having controlled its growth of Developer portfolio shares on RBI insistence. NIMs fell to a low 2.1% but the ‘bank’ remains one of our top picks in the sector at its current prices

It had a minimal share of retail exposures in its retail growth and after the current rationalisation, it will go back to getting  to the richer Developer portfolios as it boosts its Net interest income to INR 3.54B and is likely to post INR 16.54 B for the full year

Provisioning has dropped 5 out of 6 to just under INR 7 B keeping profits high at INR 2.47 B Business Standard reports its best growth of 36% in the loan portfolio came in June / September 2010 hence it has been falling.

As we mentioned it tried to balance its portfolio from 50% developer to more retail with RBI egging it on.

This quarter the Loan portfolio is a sizable INR 690 B at 21% yoy growth and may easily reach INR 1 Trillion by Q1 2015 esp as it may be able to absorb more crorporate exposure ( Developers) Loan growth of above 20% at this size of assset portfolio underlines the growing capabilities of this

This is the third copy of the posterous blog i am posting as the now twitter company seems to have lost some of its softare contstructs losing my drafts and published documents ever so often

 

India Morning Report: No CRR cuts did not cause inflation, what about these 50% growth in topline and bottomline..

Chidambaram
Chidambaram (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

Is there a way to improve the “weights” of positive results on Bank Policy Tuesday? Colgate for example grew Sales and Profits jumped nearly 50%, Biocon Sales are better by 18% on year though they failed to meet any profit growth expectations and even BHEL which pictured a dismal quarter early on but masked it with growing Power business scream out for more attention in the Chidu vs RBI date we look ahead to.

No, there’s no President Pranab intervention on the horizon and even Chidambaram would not mind if the governor lets it be. The CRR cut may also ease the current low liquidity deficit of INR 0.60 T with another INR 10k – 20k Crs or INR100-200B released on the cut announcement.

The Risk reward has enticed the shorts as we suggested it might but we still think that given the inflows this year were of a couple of orders of magnitude higher and targeted Equities per se as commodities spin out of control to the bottom of the pool, it is unlikely that shorts in anything other than the whiplash mid morning. Banknifty is such a plump target the whiplash alone could cost it a Double century and bring it back only by the day end. However, if you were buying today the odds ( and not the long odds only) are that you would be in the money on 8 out of 10 bets ith a little patience, what you would otherwise employ with a green thumb on a falling knioves kind of a day in the bazaar.

Coal gate in the meantime ( the American strain) could not ruffle Obama out of that battle state of Ohio and Romney is still looking in Wisconsin even as Florida and most of the Eastern seaboard float ( probably in an attempt to shore up Oil prices) and even in light of record inventories of Crude and gasoline, it has meant a green light for Oil bulls after a long time, again, apparently my threshold still says that Oil is likely to continue to crash despite. Festival buying of Gold is almost over and the disaster has brought up prices too and a bull run in Gold will start from here as the yellow metal can outlast thru equities bull cycles as well in an upturn and need not signal a downturn in equities.

Nifty Put Call ratio is still a healthy low at 1.10 and has a long way to go as shorts extend into 5700 calls after the initial interest in 5800 calls giving way to more focussed pressure on the Indian system

 

 

 

SEPTEMBER 2012: RBI CUTS BANK RESERVE RATES BY 25BP

As yields dropped on the reform news, good news kept raining on the markets with Duvvoori Rao going ahead with the much pressured rate cut of 25 bp to give industry a chance to shore up the IIP froma low 0.1% last week to better reports than the expected turnaround in April 2013/June 2013. The cut has not been made in repo or Reverse repo rates but CRR has been cut to 4.5% However this rate cut simply cuts possible maneuverability for the Indian Reserve Bank RBI in the rest of the fiscal. india’s fiscal deficit is likely to be revised to 6% from the budgeted 5.1% as FinMin tries to revive a much hated and shelved disinvestment program but is helped by a Diesel rate hike

Losses from LPG and Diesel have been averted to more than INR 50,000 Crs from the INR 1.3 Tln together from last week’s hike and to that extent government will not be reimbursing nor Oil and Gas producers be paying foregone profits to Oil Marketing Companies.

Yield has in fact gone back up after the policy from a 8.16% trading range in the morning to 8.1726% The future of OMOs is quite clearly what is upsetting as the CRR cut implies RBI would not like to provide further liquidity using adhoc operations later in the month though banks seldom use the liquid assets blocked by CRR even when they are freed.

India Currency Report: An early break for the Rupee

The Dollar index (DXY:US) turned down precipitously as the fight in the Euro remained about the semantics and the sufficiency of the EUR 100 B, France stepping in to say why it should be an ESM stability pay out than a bank rescue. That meant the Euro is trading close to 1.26 and the Dollar Index already 82 a full point down from 83 levels when the rupee hit 56. That means Rupee’s going to be very strong in intra day trade tomorrow.

Go Long in the July and August Futures at a good price if you want to bet with the Dollar and i should think short the June positions to 55

Better Than Expected Economic Data
Better Than Expected Economic Data (Photo credit: Thomas Hawk)

India’s monetary supply data trended with growth in Deposits to a safe 13.7%. I would say numbers below 16% are even anemic for growth but definitely that means the inflation report tomorrow will be a brilliant 7% or even lower unless the Economic data is not in sync. The base effect on the IIP hopefully is the only thing that is keeping it low now as Infrastructure looks at new investment and other sectors of the Economy also report higher investments this quarter, reigniting confidence in the Economy

Q4 GDP at 5.4% Full year at 6.5%

Not Bad for India Inc as the Dollar Support also clamps on and 4900 holds on the indices. The usual suspects, Agriculture at 1.4%, Mining at 4% and positive unlike the last IIP data report with overall GDP growth at 5% having probably been factored in already in the last emergency reratings by the Big Four on the indian Economy Q4 2011 was upgraded to 9.2% almost a point ahead of earlier data, and the base effect will likely be pronounced in Q2 as well. Some hope for investment growth has been noted with larger FDI in Q2 and an uptick in infrastructure and mining that could translate into a sustainable growth rate too.

this is a likely bottom too but individual quatrter performances now increasingly depend on support from the ever present Electricity , Utilities and Social Services with the Traverl and Transportation components which are the ones that perform every quarter. Hopefull, some lessons have been learnt for the longer run as well.

INR 18k crores windfall for PSE banks

18000 Crores capital added by government

$3.6 bln has been promised by MoF to fund state-owned banks immediately after the budget to facilitate ramping up the Tier I common/capital ratios on the FY2012 balance sheet. SBI was promised INR 1.6 bln or INR7800 crores

ECB/FCCB funding welcome

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Meanwhile, the changed fortunes of the rupees could not stop ECB/FCCB borrowing as $4.46 bln was mopped up in December on top of $1.58 bln in November.of this $2.7 bln is project based on automatic route across 90 projects , small QIPs of less than $3000 mln from mid cap and large corporates

2G Licenses

The entire $2 bln ( INR 92.6 bln) funding for the 122 canceled licenses was funded by syndicates led by SBI and PNB, both will thus claim the $2 bln refund fromt he government. Telcos pledged the licenses with banks to raise the money

India Bond Impact ( Fixed Income Report) : RBI sticks to CRR, likely no cuts in CRR, SLR

India GateRBI stuck to its plan for India’s monetary policy not bowing to FI market commentators and probably internal pulls as it refused to consider reserve requirements cuts like China in the period it waits out a bottoming of inflation expectations before considering interest rate cuts

The CRR is 6% currently except for CBLO, ACU (overseas USD holdings) , Offshore banking units NDTL and inter Bank liabilities where a 3% CRR is avered. The MSF lends to banks already including their SLR liabilities as allowed collateral at the upper limit of the rate corridor set by RBI, at 9-9.5%

RBI has already conducted OMOs to stabilise liquidity int he market and may be on the watch for unwanted liquidity influx from new QE in US/Europe and UK in that order

Market pressure on yields pushed them below 8.4% as the Electronic trading platforms traded thrice the daily average in the new year at INR 278 bln daily or INR27,800 cr daily, still avery low amount compared to inter bank trading volumes

Moody’s rating upgrade to P-3 allows india some leeway in apportioning its Reserves again as short term liabilities for Corporates keep increasing

India Bond Impact (Fixed Income Report) : Not RBI, but bonds try to get a depression prognosis

Fixed Income yields keep falling off a cliff while liquidity is managed with the year long rally in yields chopped

BOMBAY MINT Post Card
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below 9% even as emergency liquidity’s few dollars keep bonds from staying east of the channel corridor mandated by RBI with the marginal lending facility  currently at 9% for banks.

The drop in yields could not however encourage RBI to force rate cuts sooner as these yields remain in a thinly traded market and neither borrowing costs nor lending rates for retail or wholesale tranches are nearly being effected apart from Treaasury gains ahead of March 31

RBI has been allowing the use of excess SLR for the MLF (MSF) emergency window since the last 3-4 weeks leading to the unwitting capital appreciation in bonds since November.

Why liquidity should not be banks’ poison (alone)!

Central Banks worldwide, our RBI included are busy providing Reserve Requirement cuts and Emergency liquidity mop ups to ensure inter bank market fluidity and avoid a situation like for Italy and Belgium, Spain and others last November in Europe.

The ongoing Euro crisis is not just the cause of this drying up, but in fact few would probably bother to

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remember that 2008 was a result of this extreme loss of liquidity. why that happened and why banks are wrongly considering themselves only for the liquidity charter or seedings is that inordinate rush to fund the entire banking assets with inter bank overnighters. RBS included 70% of Capital from short term sources when it went down in 2007, Lehman did not get a Fed licence to add liquidity as Capital for its next balance sheet when it ran out of collateral in September 2008.

Deutsche Bank and BofA are still selling assets to add capital back not because the bar was raised by the governments to Tier I capital but in these cases just because they relied entirely on overnight markets ( BofA means the investment bank with a banking licence in Merrill Lynch too) and after sales of $50 bln in assets, the bank still needs another equal amount from non available Capital to survive.

Deleveraging thus is as much a response to clampdowns on use of inter bank notes as long term capital for Basel 3 requirements as anything else. Above all behind a well regulated bank, pointed out by Menaka here, is the new realisation that you can’t leave on the neighbour’s bread all year and need to absolve yourself of the charter to provide continuous liquidity to markets. Banks should focus on long term lending and matching sources of funding to the tenure of the funding they do than just sit on liquidity windows pressuring themselves and the banking system.

Also as we mentioned in our popular series in October and by Simon on WSJ

 Banks currently hold capital well in excess of regulatory standards, but that is due to pressure from markets, not regulators, who gave banks until 2019 to meet the new Basel III rules. There isn’t much point in regulators extending this deadline, and it would probably undermine confidence if they did. Reducing capital weights on business lending might help but is currently illegal under European law.

Happy Thursdays! Food inflation corrects

The 14% contribution of the food inflation may well bring cheer to the WPI number as Food caught a -3.36% score for the week ended December 24th to bring primary articles to 0.10% from a low 3% number last week and fuel remained suspended at 14.6% for another 25-30% of the basket. Everyuthing else in tow, Foreign inflows should make it a memorable 2012 for India but our local interests and trades of high volumes seem to have caught the index midway to the bottom. Actually there is perhaps just 15% left but one having to agree at

US-Inflation-by-year
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these rates and settle down with MTM losses on my 10% risky allocation to the emergin g market play is hardly going to be the likely scenario so one will have to wait considerably more for furious inflows into equity even as markets catch a break below 47 and promptly lose it at 4750 over the last two months. Not a very good advertisement for foreign and local investors.

Of course QFIs have been welcomed, buybacks allowed with direct auctions on the exchanges to bring equity to a 75% cap and individual investors allowed to enter Indian equity exposures from January 15, following on the ealrier invitation to Individual foreign investors in mutual funds. NO one expected an immediate surge but if that is because of no printed word on the how and why, the regulator should have no problem obliging witht hat as well.

RBI is admitting that we need more FX buffers now as companies have picked up large amounts of short term debt and while the rush to repay is on and amany with good governance have survived the MTM losses massacre before it began, India’s current account may already face a stretch to buy the oil it needs every other month

Banks: Credit up another 31,500 Cr (INR 315 bln)

The fortnight ended December 16 data shows expansion in credit continues at much the same pace reaching INR 4.26 Tln or $82bln approx. having started a w-o-w uptrend since the last week of October. Deposits though shrunk by INR 365 bln, a large sum, even as Advance Tax payments for Ecember were due. Rates of Savings and NRE deposits have been increased over this last week of the year with ICICI, IDBI joining ranks at a 9.25% NRE rate

India traders playing in CDS denominations

It is clear that new found love for CDS has empowere India’s move into the mainstream Asian trading markets though RBI has made it clear it would not allow NBFCs to write CDS contracts or short or encourage any “default” underwritten by a CDS contract. This should be direct Net worth criteria instead of class as banks or companies allowing treasuries to play with both sides of the CDS contract. CDS spreads and profits on trade rise when default rating risk increases.

A writer gains when the country’s / corporates’s default rating risk is seen to increase, just like a  buyer or insurer gains when default risk is lowered

India’s economic contradictions show up, infra investment remains slow

Equities trading near lows, derivatives including the PCR has moved on to a low 1.05 showing that the down move in equities will be limited. However after Friday’s trading at 8.55% yields are already further down to 8.47% very encouraging to the RBI Governor to begin rate cuts in earnest  and there in lies another potential breakpoint for the market after policy announcement on Friday as rate cuts are unlikely to play into the Indian story for another 4-5 months., inflation drops well in progress otherwise.

Moodys’ and goldman Sachs ( Jim O Neill) have already sounded dire Forex payments warnings  with retail FDI having counted as negative. India’s fixed income exposure outside continues to look healthy with recent outward and inward transactions of sizable value completed per expectations so we stil have time to repair our outlook.

Apart from revisiting retail FDI , whence the six months figure of $20 bln in FDI could move faster in the

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remaining fiscal, we also need to get our power sector investments going again. 2012 will be better for Fixed Capital formation as the new 5 year plan makes fresh proposed investments in its first year and briniging the growth imperative back could bring back the same additionally.

Fortunately, India’s banks are sitting on good capital reserves to accelerate credit where it is in the right stage whether for outward FDI or domestic projects thru domestic and International/PE equity. Infra structure projects’ longer gestation from the various Bombay Metro projects to the Harbor Sea link (Sewri) to be bid by Mukesh ambani and investors’ rejection of the same show the challenge ahead of us in investments in infrastructure as both fixed income markets and equities need to vcover short term returns to recover their higher costs for the scarce capital. 30 year capital can come to projects from private players only if longer debt is assured of better financial infrastructure apparently,else funding India’s $2.5 tln infrastructure gap and thus maintaining the growth imperative was well within our reach in 2011

Negative Gross Fixed capital formation after a dull 8% growth in the June quarter has skewed India’s relationship witht he credit agencies. It’s uneven relationship and the last minute slowdown when China is steadying ships is a confusing signal for the market watchers.

Unfortunately RBI cannot do much more right now except sing paeans to the success of inflation being in control

We are not alone in the slowdown nor we ever had any reason for our equity markets to be so optimistic in the last six months, but somehow we missed our growth imperative in 2010 and 2011 before being caught inthe slowdown, looking at the fall now negating our previous accomplishments rather than allowing us a wait and watch period.

India Bond Impact: Inverted yield Curve, inflation turns nose down

With inflation falling, the inverted yield curve ( 10 year yield a point below the short term 8.7% yield) could well be a good thing for india. the rupee depreciation could however keep imported inflation hot for India’s traders and manufacturers, esp as the Fuel basket is still up on the high ledge at 15.5% . The livemint Friday report has good data to back its inferences too, but even if we do not follow the RBI copybook ( playbook elsewhere 🙂 )  and set our own inflation target it could well go under 6% as and when Fuel also tackles the base effect. Prices have stabilised and bond market liquidity healthier as seen in the 8.7% yields at the short and long end a good 25 basis points below the yonder peak of two weeks ago.

For investors yields coming down on the inflation ride mean large inflows into bond and then gilt funds to shore up the neglected funds industry where AUM has dropped from 7.5 Tln in 2009 /2010 to 6.75 Tln this year a slow deterioration as all the bank rolled money for money market mutual funds was exited. For banks and large treasuries however, with the money market fund closed and RBI auctions likely to be discontinued, there would be a limbo while they decide where to deploy their idle cash for quick gains, perhaps in longer term Floating funds eventually

Rate cuts could come sooner, therefore the talk of recession as Capital4 author Deepak Shenoy highlights back in June could well be baloney. In our case inverted curves mean that banks can use that extra tey keep with RBI even if CRR cuts are not effected and bring back the short rate as and when IIP improves based on lower inflation. Believe me, no one else has the luxury of 40% of the banking system’s funds lying with the Central Bank anywhere int he world even if you could go back a hundred years thru the hyperinflation cycles in Germany and LatAm or the recession cycles in Brazil and Venezuela and Russia

China has a more well defined shadow banking system, our own professionals torn between the brand of organised businesses and stock markets and the penny pinching savings they need to build a home nest. We still have a cash based economy like Italy’s south which will apparently keep adding to our tax basket at its own pace regardless of how many investigative journaliusts or how many amnesty schemes are created and expired 56 new tax treaties later there is no inflow from that system into the economy and our taxed remain the lower percent population of the country. Typically, these factors influence the fixed income market which moves on the supply and demand of money, but that shadow cushion in China and elsewhere ( incl in Europe where it has yielded  a15% tax on Swiss deposits) is much more in control

IIP breaking your back

The Ascent of Money
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The Index of Industrial Production has really been the straw on the camel’s back. A Capital goods sector degrowth of 25.5% can not even be explained by the volatility of the sector specific expense volatility month to month. ( Our traded eficit goes up and down by a few billion every month becasue of booking of Cap goods and the fuel bills every other month)

The overall IIP degrowth is 5.1%, mining sector degrowth 7.2% Electricity still growing 5.6% Consumber durable goods would have suffered the likely miniscule contraction after heavy festival buying in October

Similarily with inflation coming down now, it is no surprise that manufacturing tilted towards 6% degrowth as it avoided last minute build up when it could produce at a lower cost later

Predilections: The exploding turkey

one rupee
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The market sentiment today after the Euro’s integration was exposed to the public as nothing but  a rear guard defense throughout the coming decade, was a perilous wait and watch for any buyers with the indices giving in to another one-sided move after 8 days of unguarded hostility, broken for a brief lull yesterday.  The market also sees everyone else as unwelcome intrusion, just that there are sellers in both equities and currency markets , not to forget bond markets who still like to see the government’s face on the other side before stopping the spree.

Whether in currency markets stemming the Yuan rise or the Rupee breakdown, most would look at the woeful example in Europe and stay away from intervention as nothing good comes out of it eventually. However, the sellers are very clear in their actions and verbal speak that their selling is not based on fundamentals and they do not think that matters. Hence, given our unlimited patience and the propensity of going bankrupt by going shopping for Rupee or Dollar at the wrong time, we would stay away till things settle down. and now, the nifty after breaking 4700 down, may just swing back tomorrow for 5 minutes before staying down till Europe realises how much it is left with after the margin calls and how much it has to print. Unless China gets a new breeds of FIIs. Though, none of the money that enters India typically leaves ( After profit booking, more is inside than it is outside in this entire 2011 spectacle)

Not to say that the markets can’t rise vertically after they do end the fall, but as the exploding turkey in the oven, it is hardly going to be championship fare when this selling gets over. The prognosis therefore is that the markets will stay dull enough and you can wait even more before you do start buying. And, right now shorting any of these would be committing hara-kiri, in equities or in currency As even newly converted India bull JP Morgan mentions, we are still overweight on cash.

Sector wise, no one who is overweight on Comms can be without skeletons to hide and I would not suggest going overweight on Comms or tech. Except that Airtel scrip, which has a lot more going for it too and a sthe only player with muscle,  in its main markets, it will turn out well. I hope my readers have been buying on fundamentals, as there are a few stars out there . Also, apart from the intermittent interest in consumer staples and healthcare, sectorally, the market does not get into a secular upswing till the best sector there is i.e. infrastructure and banking, get up and get going again

Just getting the morning coffee to work..

Predilections: The Organised Mindset of a bear

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Or, What you should be doing when the markets go dropping off that Pirate cliff:

1a. If you are thinking about buying gold, do rethink about that one as Gold has to wait for strong bearish pronouncements to move from here. However did you know that Central banks have bought 150 tonnes of the metal in one week and are still at 10% of the levels they held in the 90s when they sold and everyone else bought gold.

1b. As Central banks count as the most followed buyers right now, Gold’s meteoric rise in the last few weeks may restart Also India becomes a candidate for taking everything down right now as it gets into a tighter inflation high, currency weaker every day and deficit unsent kind of tougher twirls with a higher and higher downside, but then we would still do 7% growth so do not think of a a market below 4500 Nifty, really ( even if it breaks down to 4420 you can beasar with me, right!)

1c. Did you recheck your list of stocks to buy: All time lows everyday present great opportunities for investors out there to verify at leisure. You have at least 2 – 3 weeks to select, drop and re- select winners..

2. Watch that hollywood movie that gets released in India on time during market hours..You could not get a more predictable market direction with no trading bumps mid day since last to last Friday. Also Disney and ESPN are doing much better this decade than their worried little India doobies of a decade back, esp as Pizza and China surge

3. Reorganise India’s infrastructure priorities, find time to review M&M and Unilever (Despite a fundamental change in the fortunes of these two companies from directed strategy, they get good results and attention on a tough down day only, talk about predilections)

4. Teach other knowledgable friends – Who being optimistic on India esp during MSCI re organisation will be full of ‘know all stuff’ you can bear down on with gloating dripping from your eyes and mouth dfor weeks on end..(like the savoures you cooked for Diwali but did not last)

5. Figure out the Economic Indices: Wierd Inflation and IIP volatility, not to mention the staggering deficits not every month but every other month, the winning margins of a UPA government motion in parliament, the no. of public losses Anna is unable to bear and other ..Most of the economic ones we have dissected and detailed over the last three years here

5b. Count and read up the number of laws still required to be passed in Parliament to make reforms work for India, if only just Corporate India..GST, DTC, apart there are two years of laws to make new banks work, countless banking supervision concessions to be worked with to be international bank franchises including voting rights to be passed as clear as day, Capital controls on Forex vis a vis restructuring for a new indian currency instead of pegging to $1=100, are all end of the rainbow ideas that are not at stake either, the laws need a simple fresh Corporate law basis and has to be apart from all the changes to the M&A and competition code, Bilateral and multilateral agreements and treaties, and include Social Welfare, removal of fertilizer and oil subsidies and funding and execution of PPP projects such as the DMIC, (with NMP), new ports and unlimited gaps in education and healthcare not being considered for private participation and foreign participation to the extent required.

6. Tell everyone to “Take a virtual dive”: Right now is the best time to start on something you have never done before..In the AEs (RBI term for US and Europe – Advanced Economies, the latter have become candidates for REMs now – Re emerging Markets) they have even stopped asking people to start blogging, it’s so passe. You could take a dive into a shopping mall too, a good crowd as always

7. Ask people to figure out the probabilities of a recession in India: No one will put a blame at your door now that India is going to get tougher in the next2 years and who knows your chances of a recession in India may have just improved from 1 in a 1000 to 1 in a 100

8. Review your family’s eating and drinking habits: Especially those zombies and moose heads who are still stuck in your head and inner ear without turning you into a schizophrenic, trying to imagine themselves as a fund manager, not investing with you or paying you for your reports or research bothered with becoming a complete spectacle and proving themselves to be ones.

9. Pay attention to India’s Defence budget we are getting everything we need even if so late and even though China’s spin counts in the media we don’t

Happy Thursdays! The India Inflation reports (October 2011)

India reported its October figures for inflation still near the September’s 9.72%. The 9.73% figure was stuck

Fort Area, Mumbaiwith a high food and fuel component of 11 and 14.5% The core inflation figure remains equally tense at 7.7% India has lived with historically higher rates than most economies, its nominal growth always outpacing inflation by 7-8% since the 90s and even before at higher inflation figures and short term borrowing rates of even 21% .

India’s shadow banking system has also been in a perpetual declines unlike its counterparts in China or elsewhere  is Asia and Europe. However, bank rates are currently capped at 8.5% and borrowers do not have to fork out more than 10-14% across the 5 different credit worthy rating baskets. Credit growth is however slower at less than 20 %with RBI targeting 18% and consumption sectors have again slowed down after 11 straight months of 9+ inflation

Also linked to the monetary and fiscal systems is the fact that less than 5% of Indians fall under the tax code and/or file returns and GST has not been implemented across the Federal structure and /of fiscal measures monitored along with welfare scheme as systemized data is usually at variance within and not connected across different silos

RBI-Tower
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Food and Vegetables have not dropped below 10% in the year most times, a category of vegetables or pulses landing an annual rate as high as 25% and never lower than 15% for 6-8 months on the trot as supply measures and inadequate remuneration of farmers disturb the welfare mechanism. Almost 2 in 3 of farm advances are classified as bad loans but remain recoverable for most bankers by experience

Tighter liquidity has taken domestic yields in the 2-5 yr range to 9.1 – 9.2% recently and banks have stopped subscribing to new Govt auctions , small amounts of $220 mln devolving last week on the new 2023 security as banks are already loaded up on SLR securities as well as the 6% CRR

Rupee has also broken on the downside decisively across 50 this month after the 15% down move last month

Indirect Tax collections mark the relief for Fiscal deficit

In another structural repitition of our impregnable GDP growth rate ( at 17% nominal and nearly 8% in a down year) the Fiscal deficit overrun because of expenditure on Oil and Fertiliser subsidies and / or revenue shortfalls from divestment may be compensated by robust tax collections despite protestations to the contrary despite porotestations to the opposite from economist desks affiliated with the media.

We oursellves have found pragmatism necessary in the face of stalling growth but the Indirect Tax collection reports for April – October as well as the Advance Tax collection reports till now have been crossing the required 15% uptick in revenues. This year the small Service Tax tab has already generated INR 500 bln in seven months till October (April-October)

Also, Customs and excise collections have netted INR 820 bln and INR 875 bln well on way to the combined target of INR 4 Tln for the year from indirect taxes, stupefying hawks. That is $16.4 bln customs, $17.5 bln Excise and $10 bln in Service Tax collections till date. Advance Tax collections have to be netted for refunds later near the end of the Fiscal year Collections have grown at a rate of 19% ahead of the ‘optimistic’ target by a few points

the Exports continue to stupefy the hawks too, RBI making it clear that the numbers till now seem to be verified for correctness and India looking at a $300 bln collection but a $160-$180 bln deficit conservatively from the first two quarters of the fiscal year.

Predilections (ONGC)

Predilections 2 (FDI?)

more..

India - Madurai - 026
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India Earnings Season: A good jump start by Keki Mistry’s HDFC

The HDFC India Homes Fair
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An almost vertical 33% rise in Sales to a $800 mln ( at a temporary $1=Rs 50 average) from $600 mln last year in September, and its exemplary 4.3% NIM at the Industry defining low LTV of 70% brought home HDFC a bonanza of chips in a game of consistent upending of Industry challenges with a captive home loan customer base and assets of Rs 1.27 tln from 1 tln reached last year at the same time

September RBI data according to BS showed a growth of 6% in deposits and only 3.4% in credit while even in the US credit grew at 6.1% in the same period. Thus its borrowing rates remained a cool 228 bp lower than its higher lending rates as well. Results season for Indian banks and financial services comanies kicks in completely by tomorrow morning when IndusInd reports growth in credit and retail banking profits, expected to be another 20% as for the previous quarter. Average rerating of banking prospects in the subcontinent is looking at sales growth in credit remaining just below 20%

Infosys kicked off a new bullish trend with good results last Wednesday and TCS may pitch in with margin expansion as well even as recessionary trends in US and Europe are muted by a vertical 9% fall in the value of the rupee in September

The Indian Credit Cards Business (Post Crisis)

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Those of you who slept through Independence Day weekend should go oevr the “Foreign Banks in India: Looking cheerful again” profile for banks in August . Also RBI’s data on Credit Cards outstanding was released on the weekend and we updated thus:

(HT)Spending through credit cards rose by 30% year-on-year to Rs22,128 crore during the April-June quarter of 2011-12 against Rs16,948 crore last year, according to data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Spending through debit or ATM cards, increased by 45% year-on-year to Rs11,691  crore during the April-June quarter compared to Rs8,065 crore last year.

Though Spending is up to $5.5 bln in the quarter the $22 bln annual rate is a mere 1-1.5% of the Indian GDP depending on what estimate of GDP you work with, the growth of 20% inline with GDP growth of 9% till March 2011

Number of outstanding cards was down, banks announcing aggressive strategies in August only in terms of HDFC Bank adding new customers to 25% of the mix up from 10% last year and Axis growing to more than half a million cards (690k) depending on existing bank customers) Citi is going to be making a fresh start in retail cards (unsecured loans) and HSBC may also start slowly yet only in Personal Loans and select card segments HSBC retail’ slosses in India have been surprising wesp with the PIL product. Meanwhile debit cards have grown to 25.40 million or approximately 1/3rd of the mobile phone enabled population.

The growth has been 2.4 mln debit cards in May and June alone

Other tidbits:

Alongwith affordable housing segments in the next budget, banks have been extending Swabhimaan (in the public sector banks) initiative largely thru mobile banking to reach larger rural populaions and that will also be a payment interface /mechanism for the users sooner than later

Q3 will probably be an important spend season on both Credit and Debit Cards, Debit Cards though in numbers 10X the business are reponsible for only 1/3 rd of the payments hru the Card mechanisms at POS terminals and online. Cheque clearing systems in India deliver Rs 101 tln in transactions annually wih April 2011 posting Rs 8.66 Tln by cheques, 17% thru the Mumbai region and another 15% thru Delhi Online Transaction systems of NEFT, NECS, RECS (Ahd, Blr, Kol, Chn) and others have become equal in weight of late. The June data for cheques has gone done to INR 7.39 tln as per release now, aaveraging INR 8.02 tln per month of the quarter from 10.87 cheques each of the three months

Deposits oas of June 2011 grew 18% yeasr on year in Indian Commercial Banks to INR 2.8 Tln while Advances grew at nearly 20% despie rate hikes

 

 

More Data is being sought for this report/analysis

Bank Policy Tuesday: RBI stays true to inflation objectives

However, India concedes a new inflation orbit

With imported inflation running through the basic inputs for well over a year and price rise now taking place in Consumer Staples, RBI raised its inflation target to 7% and in fact market commentary is likely to concede it to a consensus of 8% in the next 5-6 weeks. The current rates of 9% never expected to abate steeply will thus be the immediate reason for the rate hikes but soon even that will be left out of the mechanics as this imported inflation component is persisent oand out of control thru monetary or fiscal policy. However, RBI has committed in seriousness to controlling the same as far as possible setting a new orbit for India’s interest rates as well.

Thus, India has a new Interest rate regime, akin to the nineties

A lot of us as commentators or Fixed Income practitioners have been observing that we are not at all comfortable as a nation with the temporary low interest rate regime in our banking transactions and more. What will happen with this 50 bps hike in Repo and Reverse Repo rates is that India will climb into its more comfortable high interest rate regime, and thus credit growth projections are also down to 18%. Of course, one cannot say this with certainty even now with the MSF at 9% and yields on Treasuries thus immediately moving up from 8.29% to above 8.5% but it is unlikely that with such stronger steps one can call it quits to the spiral of rate hikes we have unleashed. Our secular growth thus will survive despite the monetary disincentive and not grow by monetary incentives. However, India now has to be clear and careful on the fiscal front as any overages on Fiscal policy will be the only thing detrimental as we move along the same policy path we set for ourselves in December with inflation coming down but may be not continue a downward trend as subsidies are excessed out of the government system by cash or by  market pricing. And that is the tightrope we must walk

Banks have to pass it on

Now that the Margin standing facility itself is 9% banks will have no option but to increase rates aggressively with deposit rates growing faster too to balance the discomfort to the consumer. As low rate CASA deposits also face price increases the pricing increase will be even and more to manage the cost structures even as Terms give them a chance to manage and safeguard their current NIMs

 

Happy Thursdays! The bank rate catastrophe | Advantage Research

The North Block, in New Delhi, houses key gove...
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While the “bank rate” has been already used into Indian policy as the commercial benchmark for banks to lend and thus borrow, the policy rates set by the RBI in the ordinarily and now by policy fixed channel of 100 bp has definitely made Fixed Income more interesting with yields touching 9% soon whenever a rate hike of more than 25 bp or a WPI inflation move to double digits is confirmed even as a blip. Luckily, the ECB rate hike would already be done tonight and we have a week before talks on QE3 are more than an idle opinion at PIMCO.

As mentioned in the networks ( by Commodities experts, I suspect) the end of QE2 would soften the inflation blow for us and if it had come six months earlier, India may not have been tackling hot inflation either, which unlike in the case of China is not from overusing existing domestic production capacities and is more from supply inefficiencies and the skewed pricing vis a vis dollar we sustain for our exports. Also, before we forget challenges continue for our forex earners in other punitive action vis a vis knowledge workers and the expiry of the Doha round, even as a great performance on the fiscal deficit at 4.7% outruns our dismay in FY2012 for a likely 5.5% deficit an almost 20% jump without Telco licence revenues and lack of availability of cost cutting measures as we continue to under invest in Infrastructure as also Education Welfare and Healthcare.

My analysis however begs again that we find the space from the globally inspired inflation that has been unwillingly thrust on us and soon because we really never could afford a tight monetary policy for the Private sector or stop printing money for Welfare schemes. The catastrophe being in the RBI having to hike rates ( and they will raise it again) to bring inflation under control and keep growth moving forward when a drop to 7% growth does almost become standing still for us because of our size and diversity

Happy Thursdays! The India March Reports on IIP, PMI , Inflation and the year ahead in tweets

After the hour: Exports came out with even stronger growth for India clocking 34% higher at nearly $24 billion for April, maintaining the new heady run rate since Jan 2011. Imports continue to grow at 22-27% higher to $34 billion adding $10 billion to the monthly deficit but the higher exports making up for a long lost impetus

 

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Bank Policy Tuesday: Kicking reforms and the inflation poodle

Gold Key, weighing one kilogram is used to acc...
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A 50 bp hike, addition of a MSF rate 100 points above the repo rate and the removal of the reverse repo rate as a floater. It would be npow in a fixed channel denoting the lower end of the channel at 100 bp below the repo rate. The market should really welcome this policy as allt he planned reforms from the liquidity panel have been added as a bonus while the market was well set for  a 50 bp kicker. The advantage of being part of a thinking growing economy is that it becomes easier for you to be at the top and mauntain thought leadership. Move over the oughts, we are finally in a new decade.

The central bank has also nmixed liberal norms with simpler policy conditions which might cause a few hiccups with the old guard esp those from MNC banks as 25% of all new branches have been requested in Tier 5 and Tier 6 locations taking care of the unbanked at least academically. As policy goes of course this is much nearer to implementation also unlike the deliverance from the beauty and the beast year on year without a set course showing which has been turned on its head since 2007-08 with Duvvoori Rao firmly int he saddle taking a distinct direction and moving fast on the same. The contingent facility and the availability of 1% of CRR+SLR to the banks in overnight should be a brilliant move to keep yields in check as banks could have ended up the bvillain in pushing up inflation ain the conming higher inflation lower growth era for the economy. Also ahead of deregulation, savings rate has been kicked up to 4%

As predicted  a lot of noise about inflation too..as the mogul is still speaking, we shall wait for others reactions too

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