India Morning Report: Bad Boy shorts in more trouble, Rupee at 62.50 ‘lows’

Green Energy (narrow)
Green Energy (narrow) (Photo credit:

Dow corrected its Wednesday closing reaction welcoming the taper and Indian markets will likely realise they had shorted the markets unnecessarily and move up with IT stocks back to 6180 levels on the last trading sessions of the week. That means bad news for Angel Broking as Ashwini with them, keep digging for lower levels and markets hold above that 6150 support and move back to 6200 levels.

IDFC and Reliance are special mentions in the Morning Report today. IDFC as ET and CNBC18 report struck the alarm bells when hitting 50% in Foreign holding took it out of the bank license race. It would be applying for bringing down the foreign holding limit to 49% from 54% now. The overall foreign holding limit will be bumped back if the Central Bank refuses them a bank licence

Reliance GAS price hike of $3-4 per MMBTU seemingly translates into a sub Re 1 increase in Power Tariffs(Tulsiyan, CNBC) while Reliance increases profits on its current 20 MMBTU production (CNBC) by INR 25 Bln but its production does not increase till FY20 materially and it will thus shuck out of the Winning XI again by next week. The Gas Price Hike was approved today allowing gas availability issues to recede from April 01, 2014

On the diplomatic front, I think serious gaps between diplomats have surfaced that take the India US relations South as the focus has shifted to getting the charges dropped. The US side will thus focus on legal issues as well, where probably the real issues of employing domestic help in the US within the Embassies should probably be addressed more in the ‘face saver’ agreement, wilfully skipped by both parties showing up both sides in the Foreign Services not being live to real issues in the quick and quiet undercurrents that matter so much

Powergrid says it will be worse off by just INR 1.6 Bln on new CERC availability regulations a very small road bloack and that gives us at least 3 sectors going strong apart from the ephemeral IT and the longer term moves into Energy and metals which should completely rule out any shorts on the Nifty which continue to ride December series. Pharma is good for immediate trades, as is FMCG including ITC available at trend lows at 310-12 and Bharti at 320 levels as well as Power which almost welcomes the hike in its Gas prices as that is definitely more realistic than the $4.20($7 incl taxes) rate expected per MMBTU in the MSAs esp at the GVK Hyderabad plant example which would also benefit from the Powergrid reconnection in the South.

The India Rupee has likely bottomed out again at INR 62.5 levels

India Auto report (Annual Sales – 2011)

India auto sales for 2011 ended at 1.95 mln, neighbour to the same number a year ago instead of growing thru a bad year for sales and unlikely to grow further on a good Jan Fenb March 2011 till the end of the Fiscal according to he Industry watchdog SIAM report (Reuters)

The forecast for the Fiscal 13 ( till march 2013) moves to a 10% growth after a 30% 2010 and a 0-3% 2011

English: The Price Is Right Auto Sales Logo
Image via Wikipedia

Commercial vehicles had a better time, December sales of 72k vehicles making the yearly total of 775k , 11% higher than 2010 and enroute to growing by 20% this year , we’d say look for the millionth bus/truck sold in FY13

Business TV Franchises in India/Asia – The ETNOW Hit

Bloomberg has obviously lost share in the last bull run and the aftermath, esp after AShu cost them quite a few pips. ETNow however has shown up strongly with good editorial content but more thanthat covering the young ones on the beat witha a couple of very glaring gaps being covered like Tomorrow’s Markets and some competition to Udayan finally with topical questioning from that boy in the woods, Nikunj Dalmia.

ET Now does claim 47% market share in Metro segments ( Delhi/Bombay?) The Investors Guide Transpose did not quite work, neither has Fund watch tajken off on Bloomberg UTV but ET brings in a certain topical directness that is refreshing to see esp in the trading room. But obviously, TV18 has much more market share and NDTV Profit and Bloomberg much more finesse.= and even global depth, Reuters unable to hand off its expertise on the Asia front to the Bennett Coleman team

The public bank conundrum – Canara Bank shows up a red tailed monkey?

Image by robynejay via Flickr

Profits seem below expectations at Rs 899 Crs or $225 mln esp as the expectation was a good 10% on the upside for NII, the Bank delivering less than $250 million even at 40 to the dollar, NIMs comparing with global peers in a far more unleveraged structure and NPAs rising despite spreads being almost static across the sector, the slow bear downhill is fast looking to break the ice in the lake..Welcome to bouts of snow in midday heat

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: