India Morning Report: And it is clear thru to 6250 from here?

Most short strangle/ straddles would be in profit to have exited and is you have been a bit late you should close out here because the markets are going to have a position either way, mostly likely trying to forget the break between 6100 and 6250 as markets have been given the mandate to a new bull run, which might well start around 6250 again. For a change both networks are carrying investor conferences, apparently not the same but more importantly, the post budget rush to 6100 (more like 6150 ) came yesterday and was backed by real flows, the current levels thus likely to have fully bought in leaving a new index level before the argument over the direction for India starts, global equities being decided on the up.

The bet o f going short on the S&P500 is not necessarily linked to the single up move in Emerging markets and while the longs in Emerging markets continue, the shorts on the S&P will either become OTM hedges or extinguished as US markets also resume an uptrend

An INR 12.7 Tln expenditure budget is fair enough but the optimism allowed to him on tax revenues from a recovering India economy is likely to have brokerages just the right busy for traders and speculators to remain ahead on the risk trades  before being called out by their analysts. For example, yesterdays dissection of each such number as a “little too optimistic” finally seems to have gone unheard as it should in a believable bull segment. However, despite our India story being better than China, a sscal e of 10X will likely apply in comparing flows to the two markets alone and India will be able to win that argument for $10 Bln every quarter.

ITC, Bharti are not overvalued in the Consumer space. We cannnot see value in the HUL trade whose markets have matured in India. Other consumption stories never scaled anyway and that therefore is the limitation of investing in Indias FMCG story except the ‘other’ 2010 winners as titan and ttk remain down and the domino’s pizza is no longer the story as expected after the DD ride, showing up the absence of a secular market and pizza hut coming back out in investments despite the Dominos’ 65% share (Jubilant Foods)

Bajaj Auto may not have substantial price cuts that have  shown on the radar for Hero after the budget giveaway

There seem to be big earnings leftovers with DLF and ABB following on , ETNow catching them for a change, but one understands that CNBC mode better, having ignored these latecomers and even penalised them. Its definitely my strategy with such presenters. DLF has a 60% higher sales revenues , with or without their main contribution this quarter from the sale of Aman Resorts as costs remain high for the real estate company

IDFC, YES, PNB and ICICI correct after yesterday’s rush for buying the select list while shorts on Kotak lead the cut in all such Financial stocks. I will look to shorts jumping SBI again, but probably waiting to coalesce th ebull candles into a stronger up force. PNB is coasting at 540 post a week long correction mode after a day’s ibig wins in the post analysis.

LIC Housing is probably as good for the medium term as the Power NBFCs, all the 4-5 stocks at the bottom of their range and Sundaram and the Gold NBFCs unlikely tpo o be competitively buoyant. Axis Bank would support Bank shorts as Kotak and thus Bank remains available as a short hedge too. Cipla and Lupin present a new problem as they continue to activate a bundle of no good stocks they were partnered with in their defensive mode and are not trading bets as they reach the top of their range near 450 and 1200. There is no secular run in metals, none in construction and Tata Steel remains a buy with the auto stocks without Tata Motors or the Unitechs and the HDILs

Modi is looking at some obvious chinks in his own armor as he stands on a half poant English speaking tour, showing up equally worse off in Oratory as Rahul, but looking comfortable with one new round of Desi dose goevrnance for India Inc

From my end, Chidambaram was more than right in showing UPA’s 8.4% and 6.6% 5 year periods ( 4 year periods) against the 6.2% average, but apparently there are not enough Financially literate voters around, despite the preoccupation with growth

 

 

India Bank Earnings: SBI Q3 turns out the ugly parade

The bank created 39 bln in restructuring as INR 114 Bln added to Non performing loans in a single quarter, adding pressure even as the bank decreased provisioning in the last two quarters of the fiscal, to 58% in Q3 . However a 4.5% increase in Advances ensured another double digit increase in Net Interest Income to INR 115 Bln and Assets of INR 11Trillion with Deposits running INR13 Trillion at a 16.7% clip . Gross NPAs at 5.7% are likely just more than three quarters there yet and a Net 3.24% NPA looks ugly.

We stand by a 1300 price target to be broken on the downside in the short term now, 1280 levels heuristically offering the bank new consolidation. SBI PAT is down one in three to INR 22 Bln and aims to improve Cost and other income as the Chair announces post earnings NPA control committee restructuring. Administrative staff(quasi due diligence at best) has been deputed to front offices in measures listed. Technology may definitely provide a viable solution but Credit scoring of SME and Export credit provide unique challenges.

Employee interests may indeed warrant a look at buyback programs at this stage but the bank continues to need annual capital infusions from Government coffers as the largest bank in India. 15,297 branches with 40,344 correspondent banks, totaling a 100k outlets is definitely a great business opportunity for someone scoring the India puzzle.

As unlikely comparison and bank memes go, Barclays has turned out into a India phobe in the open, it’s Head EM Economist  using the required dissing of China to add the bumbling India quatrains to complete the report. Needless to say any such composition, follows the new meme to instead look for new EMsllike Mexico where one finds the bad mix of resource dependent Dollar imperilled markets like Turkey and Argentina.

Kotak seems to be a market favorite on this bet, if prices this afternoon are a suitable explanation ( with no other important news or rumors on the wires) HDFC Bank has finally taken off even as HDFC investment approvals are awaited. The mid afternoon score of 10250 is barely a tick as the street forgets SBI results.

WPI did make 5% in the December data release a 33% downtick from November’s spike but Core Inflation is at 2.76% . Bajaj Auto faces a revolution at Chakanypt (8%) and a ban on Exports in Eg and Sun Pharma has eased defensive buying , while the Banknifty rests at new 10400 levels with SBI’s degradation no longer a surprise, but the occasion serving a reminder to those indiscriminately picking weaker banks in the index

India Morning Report: India’s flipsyde from global correlation markets independence

All its successful recognition as a unique misstep of policy in trunk Asia investing, still leaves India a unique place in the sun, inviting specific negative correlation from trades and investors in asset markets, marking its independence streak. However, this is just a improbable hypothesis and an unlikely share for the Morning Report (in this form ) except that Dow’s 100 point rush closing yesterday is overshadowed currently by India’s own woeful exits with the Nifty streaking a negative 80 points making the Rupee start this positive Asia morning at the bottom of its current range. Likely this is the stage NDF price discovery also tail lights trends to be in extreme discovery actions and the Rupee easily could have been at 61 levels here with trade purchases and sales in the same range as earlier years Gold would be thus in a greater rush to complete a mini rally in the reduced taper euphoria.

I am apparently getting ducked on Kejriwal and Pepper spray much like I expect Independent Women careerists to, in the office today.  But markets could have easily ignored it and celebrated the successful Spectrum auctions and the India recovery data linked with global news of India’s importance in winning 2014 portfolios. India CPI ended under 9% as the urban CPI receded well into the background while IIP was almost positive with its 189 index score a big jump on the previous month apart from the strong consistent jump in utilities.

A secular Telecom industry uptrend excluding unlisted Vodafone (in India) , is likely after the media rounds prepare a consistent analysis of all players, both Idea and Jio(Rel) having bid INR 100-110 Bln, Jio adding monopoly of 1800 waves in its repertoire against Bharti which with Voda, focussed on winning back existing markets and prepare grounds for improved pricing. Idea having won price conversion over, is unlikely to create another loss making value bid in the retail markets.

In more humane form, India again loses its advantage as it starts off the recovery with an expensive rate hike, a shallow debt market and a doubloon of proprietary traders mesmerized with no good corporates and an officious monitoring and handshake philosophy engrained in Asian culture its common denominator with other closed end markets allowing a 5X US Dollar impact and shallow development hubs. India’s WPI announcements are likely to be near 5.5% .

SBI reports midday with another INR 6 Bln in provisions for pension, INR 25 Bln increase in provisions and INR 85 Bln from an ever expanding restructured asset pipeline in this quarter again but the stock will react further post earnings tipping off a expectations rally at its nadir as it comes out improving the NIM expectations in a better rate environment for lenders from 3.19% in the previous quarter.

ONGC proved great results yesterday along expected lines, profits to 71 Bln , sales at 208 Bln just 1% off last year’s data in the 30% increase in Net profit(28%). Realisations will improve substantially in the current year. Q3 realizations having dropped 4% at below $46  before depreciation earnings. Subsidy expense was more than INR 100 Bln up 10% making the 30% jump more creditable. The company may however get squeezed this quarter as the government defers subsidies with the fisc coming into an expected range.

SEBI added lines of caution on Executive compensation, independent Directors, Women Directors, public succession plans and a mandatory whistle blower policy into the Corporate Governance Code. Along expected lines, The listing agreements at the Stock exchanges will be updated immediately.

Employee stock options have been withdrawn for independent directors and nominee directors are not permitted the dual role of independent directors (DNA India, ETNow).

IT’s attempt to woo the markets with forecasts are likely to fall on deaf years as markets already topped the range on a half rush for new Rupee levels now more likely to be equated back with outsourcing jobs as Pharma breaks out in a good couple of years.

Apparently the stock of debt in Telecom, that can be shared publicly is more than INR 2,000 Bln.

In unlisted business, Kiwis have been bundled out for 192 and India will make sure it has one overseas win in its belt this time after a thorough bashing in all forms of the gamme. RCBs fortunes will be interesting to follow in the IPL with 4 marquee players and none of the local stars like Manish Pandey and Karun Nair.(TOI Blr) Lankans were ignored for an English Summer. Faf du Plessis went back to Chennai as the Gurunath investigation proceeds. Ben Hilfenhaus, will be the likely winner in relatively new entrants this year with TV Networks and Captains working towards the same objectives, Beuran Hendricks winning the Owners’ curse taking in another quality seamer. Dravid shaking down Nathan Coulter’s bid agst Delhi. The list on cricket next atill includes only CSK rosters, duh!

KKR had some money left over too after picking Manish and Debabrata (Ist Round Mitchell Johnson) while Kings XI and The Royals probably walked off , purses safe from prying eyes. This time, even as Shikhar Dhawan is down under, Sehwag bats for Punjab who have Shaun Marsh. KKR got most of the RCB slough offs after the  Fished Fisher dug himself out 

Royals kept Watson, Binny and Rahane, while Mumbai bid in Corey Andersen, Hussey and the Zed.

India Morning Report: It’s the banks, stupid!

The January series, with three days to go in the New Year, has started optimistically and apparently is in no hurry to trade. however within the two trading sessions including the first 15 minutes of today, Banknifty has already managed to 11600 levels without undue weightage to the losing PSUs. That being the target no one probably wanted to exit the 70% of India’s banking in PSU Banks forever not served by the State Bank of India or the PNB recognised as winners earlier separating them from the sick pack.

But given this start on the Banknifty this time, one would expand the role of the Private Sector banks in this rally to 13500 where one first probably evaluates its value score in terms of future March 2015 earnings

Meantime, Havells and Idea seem to be the scrips to nod to given their position in the trend and coming FY results as December numbers get reported only after two weeks and more hints are sought towards the Fiscal close where India would assess its gap in Economic terms as well, having assumed at the start of April that they would be much closer to a 6% GDP recovery

The infraco trade will like to preempt more hopeful whispers from North and South Block, the fate of the Congress government precariously hanging in balance and the hope outlasting the pushing back of most important decisions and any spending to post elections, a Vote on account coming in February to last the interim period

India certainly batted the 2nd Test well but with rains likely to spoil two more days of that game, its a virtual close to the year on a less than even score having barely eked out  a draw in the first to save face.

Happy-New-Year-2014-HD-Wallpaper

 

The LNG hike in Delhi seems to be a good marketing strategem launch timed to last throughout 2014 and players in IGL , GAIL and Reliance that starts producing under the new price from April 2014 sales. Diesel cos lasted most of yesterday with more than 1-3% gains fo rthe reported news of increasing the gap closing of diesel subsidies at INR 10 per Liter

Food inflation has shifted from Onions to potatoes, but will tick down the overall cPI before the fuel inflation statrts up in Q2 FY15

 

India Morning Report: A sudden rush for crossing 6350, nipped again

Corus trein 823 Tata Steel train
Corus trein 823 Tata Steel train (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Banking system’s woes are fresh wounds , blisters nary a bluster with NPAs at most PSU banks except BOI and PNB likely to cross 5% on Net level. Despite market’s favour for State Bank vintage in equity markets , the SBI scrip may provide most fuel for the Domestic Institutions who prejudicedly also treat the scrip as the holy grail along with operators. As we noted earlier within this fortnight, the results showing bolstered by reduced provisions for banks generating PAT growth mid year is a mirage.

Apart from the fact that NPA and AFS loss impacts have been spread over the remaining two quarters to March 2014, provisioning may be updated one shot by FY14 at all such banks and as yields continue above 9% the results will speak for themselves.

However, that is not the reason to be bearish at 6200 levels, neither is the bluster on ITC and Tata Steel by Network analysts likely to bring markets back to last week’s 6000 levels again. ITC is a good trade and Tata Global and Tata Steel seem to be capped for now. AS expected, YES BBank has moved on trading supports and IDFC is also maintaining 108 levels instead of 100 a week ago

Results from Sun Pharma last week, though not the digital upstarts like Sun Tv (SpiceJet) and Dish TV (reported today) are likely tobring rosiness back to the markets. One winner as markets tie of the Maruti move at 1700 levels will be Biocon, both scrips from disparate sectors, especially found in favor in Institutional and ALt trades looking for the India  Shining flavor along with the alpha ( which undoubtedly is missing in both stories) However a rerating further upward is likely only for Sun Pharma, having posted 58% growth on last September and having grown some claws at long last in the Indian Domestic market and margins of 33% (ex-Protonix) are good for the mile. Six month FY 14 EBITDA margins are a healthy 44% and the stock can well bring Cipla and the Midcaps out as well into more international baskets. R&D spend is likely to increase in the Indian markets in the short to medium term but current provisions, reasonable as % of sales are not good for a longer brush in the generics and domestic markets. A lot of those investments across the rest of the industry are likely lost in Process repair having been cut by FDA riding them even as Brownfield investments in the quarter exceeded $1.1 Bln and guidelines have been further revised allowing more such investment again.

India Morning Report: State Bank and Maruti not the best indicators for India Inc

State Bank of India was feted for its increasing NPAs as fresh additions stoppd at a huge INR 80 Bln instead of INR134 Bln in the linked quarter and again markets celebrate banks that fail to provision correctly, while punishing the good PNB for the same. I would switch that PSU bank trade to PNB and take some of the Satte Bank trade as well. Meanwhile after a good ‘pakao’ hour with ASK, Emkay(KK) did well in its 5 minute bits of glory on ET Now as they pointed out to a few good picks a nd a flagging MAruti. We eblieve too, the December quarter would be a big shocker for those putting faith in Maruti as it posted a 295% rise in PAT on the Yen trade in the quarter just closed

Markets could be closed for Muharram tomorrow. The coming Winter session of Parliament will again get washed out in the coalition of noise. Cipla earnings erformance as usual gets lost in it being the funding trade for the market back in the bull sights

Sachin smiling
Sachin smiling (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Natco pulls off second court upset for Pharma

Natco Pharma scored again in courts, this time against a gag order requested by Teva Pharma for a generic of Copaxone, the appeals court upholding the ruling which ensures the Teva patent expires in 2014. Taro’s contribution for the quarter in the meantime was nothing to be scoffed at, and even as SPARC takes off without Taro and Pfizer contribution, Sun Pharma reports later today. Naco also makes Nexavar, a drug patent denied to Bayer in India under the compulsory licensing regime for 3% of the cost charged by Bayer.

ONGC may pay off Oil swaps in Rupees

Rajan (RGR) in the meantime talked the Rupee Swaps into Rupee as payment currency again and the Rupee is obviously back up below 63 levels. The Fixed Income markets also saw welcome buying but the rate hike is coming as any move above the 7.50% pre October was bound to trigger. I still think the MSF channel could have been 100 basis points without raising Repo rates and with Exernal debt being an overhnga nd domestic debt unlikely choice of Corporate Treasuries used to world class Cash management and Treasury Bankers, India Inc growth is tweezed harder from this rate creep

Sachin in 200th Test appearance

The Sachin 200th Test begins today with West Indies being ut in to bat and the last of India’s renowned Mumbaikars taking the crease at home near Shivaji Park where both Sunil Gavaskar and Sachin Tendulkar learnt their Cricket. The game has also changed tremendously in these years an Sachin will continue in a key role with Nita Ambani in the Mumbai Indians

Meanwhile the KG D6 row has granted Reliance a reprieve in that the 20% left with the firm is being reported the most lucrative and thus market will expect a quick turnaround on that 50 MMSCMD mark promise being touted in the whispers

WOTD: Tata Steel shines in Gold Earnings season, Banks shine 

Tata Steel , however was definitely the shining star even as Banks make a comeback led by State Bank and PNB and ICICI Bank on cue from 1000 levels. As SS pointed out on TV18(CNBC), Axis is definitely in the stars during midafternoon trading. YES Bank and IDFC remain on BUY lists importantly for those willing to invest for the coming 6 month bang

Tata Steel was rerated up at most brokerages, Deutsche Bank taking the cudgels for a push to 525, as the sector rerating turned into real numbers at the Steel presser. Arcelor Mittal remains subdued on European market woes but Tata Steel doubled Gross Margns with rices picking up in China and SE Asia as also domestic demand pick up form Automobiles. Steel prices in the US have firmed up and Tata Steel scored a year on year 20% growth including NAT steel in Thailand when global markets for steel grew by a robust under 5% score at 4.7%. rice realisations apart, Steel markets also favor diversified roducers like Ttata Steel for the value added flat and rolled product ranges they can produce. Apart from new flat capacity added this year the producer will also e adding capacities in Orissa in 2014 while competitors like Jindal and the erstwhile Ruia behemoth stay busy in Crude Steel volumes

Manappuram Flash Earnings Q2  FY14

Markets may go all the way to 6300 in this uptick but are unlikely to go north of that mark as results for which ever camp from state elections, murky up the coming khichdi government prospects for India to ride into the 20s

Power NBFC results yesterday were in the expected direction with 30% increase in Topline while Gold NBFC Muthoot reported a Flat quarter last week. Manaappuram reported a 11.78% margin again this quarter, o fresh disbursements of INR 50 Bln but NII significantly cut back to INR 2.5 Bln this quarter. The IIP hoo haa turned out to be a damp suib despite a 8% growth in the Core 38% as the IIP for September was a slow improvement to 2% even as the Electricity sector was back with a bang as Durables joined Cap Goods in along drawn ‘winter’ of demand led production.

One would have thought that should have seen higher Gold Loan volumes but apparently the Gold consumers are able to hold on to their holdings despite a poor economy prognostication as Gold prices remain subdued in a CAD challenged year. Global Gold prices are still headed south from last week’s 1280 levels

India Morning Report: State Bank and PNB ride off BOB, BOI earnings

A Maruti Driving School in Chennai
A Maruti Driving School in Chennai (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Markets remain equally challenged after a victorious close to the series as there is no sign of retail investors ever coming back to cash equities let alone Futures and Options but BOB’s great recovery earnings built on the same devious Syndicate Bank strategy of reducing here to fore provisions to a large quantity as they are no longer legally required to keep higher provisions. BOB gross and Net NPAs continue to grow sharply with NPLs reaching more than INR 105 Bln, and still rising ven as the street celebrates its doubling of Net from a year ago after a long hiatus of subdued quarters. BOI seems to have really made inroads but here again the restructured asseets shot up to more than INR 10 Bln on advances of more than INR 2000 Bln in the September quarter. Net NPAs actually climbed down for BOI and prompted the big rally that took markets to record Sensex levels since Jan 2008. Unlike US banks making profits out of reducing revisions, BOB will likely have to make fresh provisions in the coming quarters as the NPA rates keep up.

Sun Pharma has grown to 5X times its prices in the 2008 boom and mor such rerating in the index shows a more focussed approach in the Indian markets as retail faded away in this edition of the Global crisis, Tapering fears still on tap after having induced a crises from withdrawal of excess liquidity over the summer. Lupin has also rerated up 6X times

PNB has climbed a further 5% in the morning after a 8% climb yesterday. SBI which is still unlikely to report a great comeback next week gained a further  5% yesterday to near 1800 levels developing into a ripe short even a s performers like PNB finally get their due from the stock markets after having survived on a dedicated core following as it gets sidelined in favor of the macabre theatre of the underperformer s who apparently provide more value from the sharp cuts they faced. Bank nifty  started the morning beyond the 11,500 levels it closed on expiry Thursday. BoI is a good investment. Allbank and BOI both reported 2.93% NIMs for the quarter below par but rising for BOI while ll Bank continues south in further NPAs that are likely to hit the INR 100 Bln mark before  the rot stems

IDFC as expected has taken to the bulls in this month’s series at 108 and YES Bank broke 360 levels to go north. Meanwhile as moneycontrol informs automakers Maruti have jumped turnover 2.5 times to INR 100 Bln since Q2 FY09 when the Sensex last saw these levels. As F&O analysts informed the Network audiences yesterday thi s series is likely to see further inroads into the Sensex and the Nifty will easily cross the 6350 levels. Th long term targets of the Nifty will thus be closer to 6600 peaking between 6650 – 6750 come 2014

India Morning Report: Here comes 6000? and what the banks will do in 8.6% yield scenarios

Yes Bank
Yes Bank (Photo credit: magnusvk)

Apart from the unremediated concerns in the Fixed Income market, yesterday’s rally created an awareness of the potential inflow obvious to insiders earlier this year. i.e. Around the Globe, India remains the most attractive investment destination after being clamped on with the rest of the globe in recovery awaiting elections to be over here in policy action and growth parameters and local consumption and investment makes this story unique.

Infosys is also likely to deliver significant outperformance at the Q2 announcements a week later and interestinly, the markets are correcting Infy’s recent run up already to 3000 levels and that could mean one rally is due in October and even September saw 6148 based on the return of inflows.

Banks of course in the meanwhile are looking askance and a standoff with the Central Bank is in the works while Markets continue to worry about Banks other than PNB, BOI and the private Sector banks. Banks probably still look for opportunities with the currency not stabilised and may have to worry about increase in Deposit rates. The Bank Nifty churn would have been isolated easier if they had concentrated on shorting SBI which despite its distribution continues to spring a growing NPA basket every quarter instead of delivering on the retail growth and profitability they continue to tom-tom to any analyst who would spare time for management commentary

Considering that this 8.6% yield on the 10  year comes after banks got a whole Trillion and Half from non penal overnights at the Central Bank and NIMs are protected and increasing, it is quite likely a matter of concern es in the light of the Rupee strength that yields are wary of coming down

Penal rates and those new effective rates on the MSF may however still be withdrawn another inch or more on the October policy to bring the channel back to 100 bp. ( For details flip thru previous issues or ask us) PSU banks received another large Capital infusion yesterday to keep lending rates in check(SBI is funded separately)

Bajaj Auto and ITC probably continue their northward rally till the mid results change of weights while those looking for a correction in Tata Steel are likely to have given up now, while Tata Global investments may take off only after the company itself stakes out a minimum of 200 Starbucks stores ven as wholesale auctions improved pricing for India exports but output and hence export takeoff was lower

Pending infra projects are not going to take off in a hurry but 5900 levels should see both DIIs and FIIs buying and F&O interest has definitely moved up the range from 5900 to 100 &6300 than yesterday’s 5900 Call OI that signified markets ranged to 5900 levels on the upside. Gold and Silver are still negative. India and US in the meantime, the two strongest markets and recoveries continues to once again falter in Services PMI and thence composite PMI because of spending cuts

 

India Morning Report: Dead cat bounce, Earnings rebound on the horizon

NEW DELHI/INDIA, 16NOV08 - Klaus Schwab, Execu...
NEW DELHI/INDIA, 16NOV08 – Klaus Schwab, Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum, Narendra Modi, Chief Minister of Gujarat, K.V. Kamath, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, ICICI Bank; and President, Confederation of Indian Industry at the welcome lunch for the World Economic Forum’s India Economic Summit 2008 in New Delhi, 16-18 November 2008. Copyright World Economic Forum ( http://www.weforum.org )/Photo by Norbert Schiller (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

And the international  impact of an immaterial shutdown cascading to its third instance in the current crisis after a US downgrade and the shutdown first awaited showed governments globally as it did markets that it was really immaterial. The economics of a shutdown are indeed brilliant and technically still half an hour away(at writing) . It means some  Federal Workers will not get paid and probably more in this instance than earlier when it affected only pensions and some non critical defense spends and not even one third planned government spending which anyway trends down having been minimised earlier

Anyway, apart from the sequestering which will in the long term impact US healthcare and Defense stock, the issue of the Rupee recovery as Oil continues south ( on weaker global /US consumption) and the US Ten year yields looking to bounceback from 2..64% on ‘No Taper’ news, India Inc has had nothing to report. Earnings in Q2 despite the all round scare will remain positive for the few listed corporates that carry India Inc on their shoulders The rebound in software exports in the invisibles however has strengthened the trend towards overweight IT and Pharma portfolios

Mitesh (ETNOW) as usual played a clear long with a pick on ABNuvo in cash that works much better thu the day than the Sandeep Waghle/Gujral technique of trying to short the edges of the bottom as the Dead Cat bounce holds and rejuvenates some banks (Afternoon update: Banks managed well, YES Bank shorts dened and F&O interest likely having picked up in those 6 bank series excl the banknifty index weighed by more than 2/3rds publc enterprises)

The CAD bounce is already in with $21 Bln in a quarter indeed by itself worthy of applause and additionally was abnormally high and the other three quarters of the year will trend barely in double digits if Government estimates for the full year CAD are spread over these coming three quarters at less than $9 Bln each That is due to the reduction of th $8 Bln Gold deficit in Q1 before curbs coming down to near zero ( restricted to 20% of imports  that is not exports thru the regulations introduced concurrent with RBI’s currency control measures in monetary policy

The Trade Deficit keeps growing and again for India as for US the Net Services (Invisibles) Contribution was a surplus of $16 Bln for the quarter gone by, but the blocked imports leading to the same are not available to us to comment on our ‘cutbacks’ impact on growth. Core Industries (38% of the IIP) grew the expected 3.8% after a 3.1% in July, making the hopes of a recovery more substantive as well. Banks like ICICI, HDFC Bank and Axis will reap benefits f any rebound from their larger distribution and shorting SBI is still a neat trick int he market in terms of the looming uncertainty in the short term. In fact I would say it could break below 1500 but for the rising bear trap being locked into by Bulls in India counters selling 1500-1550 puts and looking for a trade positive on buying the 1700 Calls than writing them so its actually a seesaw.

Don’t worry about EM being global victim of the QE and now its withdrawal, the newest setup is on the Euro, with 17 weak countries holding it, as it rises into the bubble-o-sphere on  US Stupidity and is potentially looking to becoming quite a safety wall for all the world’s troubles much like the yen did for three decades since the 80s.

The Banks are trading in the green and this weeks events could possibly split the bank trades between PSU And SBI negative and ICICI Bank and private bank positive in this trading rich sector even as metals struggle to find buyers as the markets still believe in a lower bottom around 5600 (and then lower still)

Tata Steel and probably two more scrips at most merit positive attention and would have accumulation from institution at all levels. The calls in ICICI Bank and IDFC are likely to remain positive though the rest of the week with the low levels of yesterday late afternoon, when the morning’s dead cat bounce ‘resumes’.

 

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