India Morning Report: Markets negative ahead of expected rate action

Inflation rate world
Inflation rate world (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

Most economists and bankers are in consonance  that RGR may well post a higher repo rate number from the Central Bank Quarters today and thus Markets, teetering at 6100 levels since yesterday along with our expected markdowns on currency and bonds coming in play are negative on bank stocks and the market is ready for a pitch South of the 6100 mark this morning.

 

More than $4 Bln or INR 250 Bln have entered the markets from Foreign accounts in the two months of August and September according to ET Data and October will probably see an even higher number having come in as ETF inflows were exceptionally strong.

 

WE on the other hand still do not find such a motivation in the current inflation data except for the small spat on Onions. If the new Guv of course thinks he cn meaningfully control food inflation as India enters a critical period of recovery , it might well be, but it is unlikely to make a strong case as there are other reasons in the Supply chain and the continuing need to support farmers for food inflation to wave through food, veggies, milk & animal products

 

We also think Dabur results ae a good portender with Consumer Staples being an important watch category and if RBI policy is favorable the markets must rise with ITC results being seen in that light as well. The exceptional 10% postive reaction to Maruti’s results are of course just a sign for quick profittaking int hat scrip as trades eluded the banks in the cliffhanger again

 

Glenmark Pharma reports on Thursday with DRL and Torrent and Sanofi report tomorrow, so the Export earnings fiesta is well and truly alive exp on Glenmark. The Master investor’s Jai Corp reorts today

 

A couple of NBFCs do report today incl Chola and JM Fin (Vikram Pandit) but the market interest is ripe for pickings in the Power NBFCs as again shorts try to climb the wrong tree with REC already trading at 180 levels, REC, PFC and even PTC might react better post policy. IDFC reports on Thursday with Magma and Muthoot. Also, REligare and the PSU troupe with Union Bank and BOB joining BOB report Thursday. LIC Housing reports tomorrow. Each of these will see more than scrip specific impact

 

DLF, Bharti and bank hopeful Edelweiss also report tomorrow and will be key

 

 

 

 

 

India Morning Report: A new bank, not Citi, 8 not 4 and numerous other slips to the mile..

Vikram Pandit’s new efforts in India with Kampani’s JM Financial may get JM a 10% bump in stock quotes but it is unlikely that his 50% buy of the subsidiary and 490 million warrants worth 3% of the listed company with Hari Aiyar and wife in the new bank application at this stage will build on anything like branch infrastructure in at least the next decade, so watch out for questions on the application being followed closely in the media?

Otherwise of course the Chinese continue to prefer the number of wealth ‘8’ in their phones and registration plates for the cars that are sold and you should avoid gifting them anything with the number ‘4’ thats sound like the word for ‘death’ and Morgan Stanley leads the list of suitors looking for a bear to hold as Indian markets sit pretty on last year’s prudent calculations still not outrunning the underperformance in sensex companies in the quarter gone by. Markets are headed to all time highs probably but the next target is 6350, steady as she goes..

A wonderful FNO pick on Tata motors reversed my earlier opinion of the TV18 guest who chose Tata motors again but as stock vols (option vol in current month series) closed above 40 the bid to range the 280-310 stock trade with a bought put at 305 on a strike of 290 as recommended should gladden many a margin accounts. The strategy is brilliant only if when it opened this Friday, the bids in the normally not so liquid stock family ¬†would not have quoted the ratio spread at a profit. Buy three puts at 290 at today’s open and sell four 280 puts in a minor tweak to the strategy played on the network but you could leave it a t 1:2 as well

Do write to us above and link in with your blog / facebook page in the comments. 2013’s dull exports and consumption story for India in the meantime cannot stop cosmopolitan urban India from turning Jiading(F1 track) and Pudong (Shanghai) and Lavie and “Caprese” luxury bags with Gucci stores springing up here now much after China’s $15 b market accepted them despite our protestations to the contrary .If not the Chinese predilection for lucky numbers, one could still catch a fancy to under-reporting ages , the ilk spied upon by Jug Suraiya on Page 3 in his TOI op-ed of today

ITC results should be eagerly anticipated and with infracos back in demand together ITC and IDFC will garner a lot of new outstanding demand volumes ( open interest) esp as JP Associates has completed a first rush yesterday to 80 on the futures. Sun TV is much better than Satyam though but both are equally risky on corporate fundamentals after the corporate governance in churn in either of the scrips. Sales of $1.6B at ITC in the quarter reflect the last of the big consumer companies making a sustained comeback after the jump in Q3. Europe based consumer goods giants including Nestle, Diageo and Unilever have already been singled out for investor attention in growth deficit hungry Europe for their stronger Asia businesses (ref FT.com, subscription required)

The New Drug policy is out though impacting margins at Pharma MNCs and Cipla & Lupin will also trend down on the repricing of margins across the board.

The main topic on this busy day could still have been the new RBI trend policy established by the WPI falling below 5% and the CPI having come in earlier. Though loath to check the sub indices this morning i see a Core inflation at 2.77% near all time lows and I do not believe we have seen the last of food inflation though April did not get to be a major run on the home makers’ wallets.

10 Y yields on the new bond have already responded vertically to near the 7.25% mark and thus RBI will take the whole term down immediately in the next three-four months before growth actually responds, likely leaving the rates below 7% forcing banks down on deposits despite the flagging demand and without more than a signalling cut in CRR. The news of more cuts was however the most important one behind Thursday’s heart of a rally.

 

The miss India missed to nail down again

Rather to the detriment of the Indian purse strings which are a little stretched as always, we were unable to even attract real portfolio FDI in this current run on Equities, with $7 bln hardly enough for the kind of momentum we talk to. China definitely has the edge on infrastructure but more so and back on the same drawing board, it is our spin control and inability to adopt a senior group of such investors and give them what they want that is the problem why we at our best our no more than a 5-7% in the MSCI Asia index.

Indra Nooyi
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We need to cultivate mroe than the process and more than our seldom far out daspora like Sameer Arora and indra Nooyi / Vikram Pandit but more so, we need to sit with just one group of a dozen FDI and FII investor advisors ( just the latter is required with a commitment to bat for both FDI and FII) and not just feed them the public press but go all out to make them commit at least one fifth if not one third of their global investments to this new #2 in 2050 as reports mark our future growth. It is what the ASEAN and more importantly the Chinese have done right.

English: Vikram Pandit, Chief Executive Office...
Image via Wikipedia

The mandates, and they are not banana republics or banana billtons any of them, just the mandates hwne given have been complete and thus the investors were able to roll bigger cash into the Taiwans, the Turkeys and even China, poor at $10 blna month in FDi and considerably much more in Portfolio investments at the low end of the cycle with local governments, fund management companies and despite pecuniary duties on imported auto which does not stop th others from brining int he big investment to China

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