India 3.0 – A question of balance (A Calendar of Economic Events)

Trading strategies are more the norm at this time of the day but the markets have finally regressed the entire cycle of events from the mid 90s to retrieve a year or at least a month of flat no move left stock markets and the rupee after a valiant afternoon early last week, follows into submission.

By our calendar, India Inc and indian polity have more twiddling of thumbs despite the Parliament out of the way till New Year festivities start in earnest and the Opposition crosses probably into a near win zone against the losing Indian government, a sinking ship, ripe for deserters and hence the time for foreign media to make a tattle tale red a**ed monkey impact on things.

One still thinks ofcourse that India Inc will survive the remaining year as the financial markets have, propped by liquidity though consumption is likely to be a dampenedr in the coming festive season with means stripped of all respect in the Ways and Means advances of a government, 33% of plan spending and 52% of non plan spending exhausted in one quarter and personal consumption enjoying the hit from inflation every week.

Ofcourse the Indian polity has been early pioneer and we the commentators have been as usual late in adapting to India 3.0 which like 1.0 and 2.0 before simply refuses to budge from positions, movements and growth rates established last after a severe drought in the early 20th century and a westernised relief program by the then British sponsored Congress governments in the principalities of Indian maharajahs.

The Anna movement has fizzled out without a viable political color, NaMo and Nimo apparently not good for a national calling and Rahul Gandhi not coming out to take charge, the old generation moving on has also provided pause for those of us born in the 70s as more entry line recrutiting takes salaries , if any , to 20 somethings and no growth industry replaces againg telecom infrastructure stories banks amnaging to gro credit to NBFC, Real estate (Affordable Housing) and other services industries.

FDI collars for old sectors, new banks and growth calls for the pack waiting for work yet still snagging salaries at IPL linked marketing companies, erstwhile growing BPO and IT companies or NPA hit PSU banks are yet a year or more away. Not much is expected from IIP data and Manufacturing Output growth data on Wednesday while Friday’s WPI data and that of FX reserves is unlikely to move decisively either, yet not be in the rut, WPI having improved for the last three-four months. European inflation data is likely to be worse today when most nations report than tomorrow when Italy and Sweden are scheduled to report while key South Korean, Russian and Aussie data speeden the recovery by the currencies against the dollar.

India / Asia Deal News and Prospects

The Anna movement has fizzled out without a viable political color, NaMo and Nimo apparently not good for a national calling and Rahul Gandhi not coming out to take charge, the old generation moving on has also provided pause for those of us born in the 70s as more entry line recrutiting takes salaries , if any , to 20 somethings and no growth industry replaces againg telecom infrastructure stories banks amnaging to gro credit to NBFC, Real estate (Affordable Housing) and other services industries.

FDI collars for old sectors, new banks and growth calls for the pack waiting for work yet still snagging salaries at IPL linked marketing companies, erstwhile growing BPO and It companies or NPA hit PSU banks are yet a year or more away. Not much is expected from IIP data and Manufacturing Output growth data on Wednesday while Friday’s WPI data and that of FX reserves is unlikely to move decisively either, yet not be in the rut, WPI having improved for the last three-four months. European inflation data is likely to be worse today when most nations report than tomorrow when Italy and Sweden are scheduled to report while key South Korean, Russian and Aussie data speeden the recovery by the currencies against the dollar.

AT THE TIME OF THE LAST SUCH STASIS IN THE MID90s WE DID NOT SEE COCACOLA QUIT OR KFC INTRODUCE VEGGIE MENUS BUT MANY LEFT INDIAN SHORES FOR A “PAN ASIAN” PRESENCE and as of now the European Banks are leading the same trend even as their future stays inextricably linked to the Asian movers and shakers.

MEANWHILE Heineken’s Asian Deal has generated interest for real estate reasons as well, with the makers of Tiger Beer and F&N juices also owning the largest property on Singapore’s Orchard Road, worth 50% more than Tiger Beer’s sale proceeds.

Also Kingfisher has moved on from probable and hope ful to near certain death as it keeps the skeletal senior management onboarded at a cost of INR 675 Crs according to a ET weekend report.

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